Monday, July 01, 2019

The Philadelphia 76ers -- The Emperor is Naked

People tell themselves lies to get through the day.

People tell people what they want to hear so that they continue to have access to them, to feed at their trough and to remain relevant and important.

People look at things through the lenses they have and know, but perhaps not through the lenses they should expend the effort to deploy.

All of these observations apply to the Philadelphia 76ers and the moves that they just made.

The actions of ownership in the post-Sam Hinkie era continue to fail to impress me and continue to fail.  Ownership let the league foist Jerry Colangelo (who had a hidden agenda) and his son Bryan (who was less than competent) on the team, disrupting an innovative theory that Sam Hinkie had put into place.  Post-Colangelo, the team hired Elton Brand to be their General Manager.  Brand had a long career and had a reputation as a good teammate, but his experience as GM prior to last season was one season as a GM -- of the team's G-League team.  The last time I checked, the job responsibilities did not include massaging the egos of stars, dealing with the agents of good NBA players, dealing with a salary cap or the league's labyrinthine rules about salaries.   Brand was a guppy in a league full of sharks.

So what happened yesterday?  The 76ers let Jimmy Butler walk, figuring that at age 29 he was not worthy of a five-year max deal because instead of focusing on winning soon they were worried that they would be saddled with his contract at age 34.  Translated -- they let the guy walk who was one of the two adults in the room during the playoffs, where a much different type of basketball is played.  They let the guy walk who you wanted to have the ball in crunch time.  The only guy on the roster who you wanted to have the ball during crunch time.  And they did not replace him with anyone who you want to have the ball during crunch time.  And they also did not replace him with anyone who can run a half court offense the way he did, even if he was out of position, so bad was the 76ers' situation at guard.

They also let JJ Redick walk.  Apparently, they tried to play hardball with a guy who enjoyed the city and the team, and who was one of Joel Embiid's two favorite players on the team not named Joel Embiid, the other being Butler.  Redick is a perpetual motion machine, in great shape, and a guy who can shoot the three consistently.  Not only has the team lost a leader, it also has lost one of its best shooters.  What compounds this problem is that the team's other young star (allegedly) is Ben Simmons, who does not shoot and probably right now cannot shoot.  Take way an outside threat like Redick and teams will pack in defenses and double- and perhaps triple-team one of the league's best players in Embiid.

Management was active and is taking a victory lap over its moves.  The spin is that they will have the best starting lineup in the league, one of the best defensive teams in the league and one of the tallest starting lineups in league history.  But remember that some reporters usually spin things positively because if they get too critical or too negative their sources will dry up.  Access at times for the media is more cherished than accuracy, if only because the competition to break a story is so keen.  Translated, don't believe all of the positives you read.

The 76ers gave a max deal to Tobias Harris, for whom they paid a steep price mid-season last season.  To Harris's credit, he endured during the 76ers' season if only because chances to practice and mesh with his teammates were very limited, and few plays were designed for him.  That said, as celebrated a talent evaluator as Jerry West traded Harris precisely because he did not think Harris to be worthy of a max deal, saw him as a nice guy without a killer instinct who is a third option on a good team.  Now, the 76ers are paying him money usually reserved for a superstar and asking him to be the second top force on offense next to Embiid.  That's a lot of money and it could be a big ask.  The team was more willing of give Harris a max deal because a) he is three years younger than Butler and b) in all likelihood easier to manage.  That said, how many teams' true mega-stars are not at times combustible hot-blooded competitors who want to win so badly?  Put differently, Harris has a lot to prove.  Butler had much less to prove.  And Harris has to show he can take over a game in crunch time.

The 76ers signed Butler and traded him to the Heat for Josh Richardson, a decent defender whose shooting tailed off miserably at the end of last season.  Many are touting this as a brilliant move, but Richardson is not an elite player the way Butler is and has to shoot very well to replace not only Butler but also Redick.  That's a big ask, and it's an even bigger ask to say that yes, it will be Josh Richardson who can take over a game in crunch time in the playoffs.  Butler could.

The team also signed thirty-three year-old Al Horford to a four-year deal that could be worth $109 million, when they could have had Julius Randle for a lot less, Julius Randle the true four.  Okay, Randle might have a few unpolished spots, and Horford is a respected veteran, but he has played the five his entire career and is 33 years old.  He will be 37 when his contract expires.  So the logic about Butler doesn't make sense if Butler would have been 34 at the end of his contract while Horford will be 37 at the end of his sizable deal.  Sure, he gave the 76ers fits by compelling Embiid to come outside the arc to guard him, but how can he complement Embiid?  This transaction is a puzzler.

The team still has little in the way of a bench.  It still has no one who can guard a speedy, scoring guard for an opponent.  How many times did an opponent's guard torch the 76ers last season?  Joel Embiid has yet to prove he can get into shape and stay on the floor.  And, most of all, Ben Simmons still cannot shoot.  The latter's lack of a shot is the biggest gating item for the team's elevation to the elite level in the league.  If Ben can hit outside shots consistently, you can make a good argument that he becomes the best player in the league.  If Ben can hit outside shots consistently, then he can take over in crunch time.  If Ben can hit outside shots consistently, then opponents cannot double team other 76ers.  If Ben can hit outside shots consistently, the team can win 65 games and get to the league finals.

What seems more likely is that it will take 12 games to get the chemistry right, maximize the strengths and expose the holes.  The team needs shooters to take the pressure off Embiid.  It needs defenders who can neutralize the Irvings, the Walkers, the Lillards and even those at the next few levels down who have tormented the team.

The 76ers' moves yesterday are nothing to do cartwheels over or get excited about.  It is unclear whether the team got any better.  The team's great spin machine will tell you that this is part of the process and that this is the best lineup since the team with Doc, Moses Malone, Andrew Toney and Mo Cheeks.  They will tell you that they will stifle opponents and run by them.  They will tell you a lot of things.

The problem is, they already have over the past five years.

And how has that worked out -- for them and for you?

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