Are the Baseballs Wound More Tightly?

That seems to be what everyone is saying.  That the baseballs are wound more tightly, that the balls are jumping out of parks at record rates, that among others the Phillies are on pace to set the record for home runs yielded in a season (one pitcher, Jared Eickhoff, has yielded 18 dingers in his last 28 innings -- that is not a typo).  Many commentators are saying that unlike the last home run surge, when the players were juiced, this time the balls are.  Are they onto something?

Well, until a professor in materials science from Purdue tells us that they are (presumably by comparing this year's balls to balls used in prior seasons), consider this -- could the analytics that help hitters be further head of those that help pitchers?  That might be the better explanation.  Perhaps there is technology that can predict pitch sequences and gives the hitter a better chance of knowing what's coming.  Or, perhaps there is tracking technology that examines opposing pitchers' motions to the very small detail, looking for a "tell" that he is going to throw a certain pitch.  Oh, I'm not talking about something so obvious that half the stadium can tell that a pitcher is tipping his pitches, but something done through tracking software normally reserved for military applications that can discern a nuance so slight but detectable that a hitter then can predict with more certainty what is coming?

Is it plausible?  Yes, it is, but then again, the counterargument is compelling, too.  That if such technology were in place and deployed, ERAs would be even higher than they are (and they are still higher than last season) and batting averages would be even higher.  Fair enough.  But the fact that ERAs are higher and HR numbers are up suggests that there is something going on that is giving an advantage to hitters.  For years we have endured endless changes in pitchers to enable a manager to get the right matchup and then pitchers' throwing as hard as they can to get someone out.  Specialization, then, hit the craft of pitching to a degree not seen before.  And many of these pitchers, with narrowly defined roles, excelled.  Then again, there are many who did not -- it is a highly competitive business.

But something is going on, that is for sure.  The easiest explanation is that the balls are juiced because most teams have subpar bullpens and are struggling to get people out and hold leads.  Because to argue that each team is sophisticated enough analytically to have cracked the code of dominant pitching is to suggest that each team is well run and spends funds on stuff like this to the same degree.  Another possible explanation is that the focus on launch angle and exit velocity is such that those prone to hit home runs have mastered the adjustments to the modern game so much that we are hitting a high water mark for home runs (and possibly for strikeouts).  What might well happen is that teams will adjust again, figure out a new strategy, and then the home run numbers will drop again.  Baseball is, after all, a game of adjustments.

Is it fun, now, to watch baseball?  Lots of home runs, lots of strikeouts, a game that is much different from the game we watched 40 years ago.  The game takes longer, climate change has made the weather less predictable, and the ball is in play every four minutes.  Attendance is down.

But somewhere, some owners are smiling.  The ball is flying out of the park, right?  That fact brought people back to baseball in droves after the strike of 1994 that ended up causing the cancellation of the World Series soured people on the game for a time.  This time, the cause for concern is how long games take and how little the ball is in play.  Will this home run furor bring people back?

Don't bet on it.

Attention spans are shorter, there are many more alternatives for entertainment, and soccer, like it or not (and I like it) is zooming in popularity.  The NBA has a hot hand; basketball is cool.  Football remains predominant, even though those who play it are maiming themselves for life, most college football programs lose money and fewer kids are playing it.  Baseball has a chance to change its course.  So far, though, the Lords of Baseball have been resistant to change, and a huge labor war is brewing because analytics have all but nullified the goals of the players in the last collective bargaining agreement -- to enable free agency by or at 30 to enable a big pay day.  The problem is that the analytics have demonstrated that most players are on the decline by then -- and the free agent paydays are not forthcoming.  The owners have a good deal right now, but as someone once told me, too good of a deal is a bad one, because once the other side figures it out there will be hell to pay.  That day is coming.

So, are the baseballs wound more tightly?  Perhaps.  One thing is for sure -- because the balls are jumping out of the park, managers and pitchers definitely are . . . wound more tightly.