Are the Baseballs Wound More Tightly?

That seems to be what everyone is saying.  That the baseballs are wound more tightly, that the balls are jumping out of parks at record rates, that among others the Phillies are on pace to set the record for home runs yielded in a season (one pitcher, Jared Eickhoff, has yielded 18 dingers in his last 28 innings -- that is not a typo).  Many commentators are saying that unlike the last home run surge, when the players were juiced, this time the balls are.  Are they onto something?

Well, until a professor in materials science from Purdue tells us that they are (presumably by comparing this year's balls to balls used in prior seasons), consider this -- could the analytics that help hitters be further head of those that help pitchers?  That might be the better explanation.  Perhaps there is technology that can predict pitch sequences and gives the hitter a better chance of knowing what's coming.  Or, perhaps there is tracking technology that examines opposing pitchers' motions to the very small detail, looking for a "tell" that he is going to throw a certain pitch.  Oh, I'm not talking about something so obvious that half the stadium can tell that a pitcher is tipping his pitches, but something done through tracking software normally reserved for military applications that can discern a nuance so slight but detectable that a hitter then can predict with more certainty what is coming?

Is it plausible?  Yes, it is, but then again, the counterargument is compelling, too.  That if such technology were in place and deployed, ERAs would be even higher than they are (and they are still higher than last season) and batting averages would be even higher.  Fair enough.  But the fact that ERAs are higher and HR numbers are up suggests that there is something going on that is giving an advantage to hitters.  For years we have endured endless changes in pitchers to enable a manager to get the right matchup and then pitchers' throwing as hard as they can to get someone out.  Specialization, then, hit the craft of pitching to a degree not seen before.  And many of these pitchers, with narrowly defined roles, excelled.  Then again, there are many who did not -- it is a highly competitive business.

But something is going on, that is for sure.  The easiest explanation is that the balls are juiced because most teams have subpar bullpens and are struggling to get people out and hold leads.  Because to argue that each team is sophisticated enough analytically to have cracked the code of dominant pitching is to suggest that each team is well run and spends funds on stuff like this to the same degree.  Another possible explanation is that the focus on launch angle and exit velocity is such that those prone to hit home runs have mastered the adjustments to the modern game so much that we are hitting a high water mark for home runs (and possibly for strikeouts).  What might well happen is that teams will adjust again, figure out a new strategy, and then the home run numbers will drop again.  Baseball is, after all, a game of adjustments.

Is it fun, now, to watch baseball?  Lots of home runs, lots of strikeouts, a game that is much different from the game we watched 40 years ago.  The game takes longer, climate change has made the weather less predictable, and the ball is in play every four minutes.  Attendance is down.

But somewhere, some owners are smiling.  The ball is flying out of the park, right?  That fact brought people back to baseball in droves after the strike of 1994 that ended up causing the cancellation of the World Series soured people on the game for a time.  This time, the cause for concern is how long games take and how little the ball is in play.  Will this home run furor bring people back?

Don't bet on it.

Attention spans are shorter, there are many more alternatives for entertainment, and soccer, like it or not (and I like it) is zooming in popularity.  The NBA has a hot hand; basketball is cool.  Football remains predominant, even though those who play it are maiming themselves for life, most college football programs lose money and fewer kids are playing it.  Baseball has a chance to change its course.  So far, though, the Lords of Baseball have been resistant to change, and a huge labor war is brewing because analytics have all but nullified the goals of the players in the last collective bargaining agreement -- to enable free agency by or at 30 to enable a big pay day.  The problem is that the analytics have demonstrated that most players are on the decline by then -- and the free agent paydays are not forthcoming.  The owners have a good deal right now, but as someone once told me, too good of a deal is a bad one, because once the other side figures it out there will be hell to pay.  That day is coming.

So, are the baseballs wound more tightly?  Perhaps.  One thing is for sure -- because the balls are jumping out of the park, managers and pitchers definitely are . . . wound more tightly.

A Year for Hoopsters from, Well, Obscure Schools.

Tony Bennett played college basketball at University of Wisconsin, Green Bay.  He coached UVA to the national title this year.

Nick Nurse played his college basketball at the University of Northern Iowa.  He coached the Toronto Raptors to the NBA title this year.

Gary Woodland started his college athletic career by playing basketball at Washburn University.  He won the U.S. Open golf tournament at Pebble Beach yesterday.

Who's next?

Everyone Was a Warrior Last Night

The NBA could not have asked for better material for its marketing efforts than Game 6 of last night's Championship Finals.  What a grand game it was.  It showed that to dethrone a veteran, defending champion, you have to give it everything you have, you have to take the crown.  Even depleted with injuries, the Golden State Warriors ceded no ground to the Toronto Raptors.  If you are old enough, conjure up in your memory photographs of an Ali-Frazier fight, in black-and-white, with smoke rising to the rafters of Madison Square Garden.  Steph hits a three!  Fred Van Vleet hits one!  Draymond grabs another rebound!  Kyle Lowry made the court his own person playground at the games outset!  Kawhi, well, he was just being his awesome Kawhi self!  And Andre Iguodala, what can you say about his effort other than it increases and improves as the games get tougher!

Everyone who participated last night was a warrior.  In the end, the Raptors just had too much for the defending champions, but in falling so valiantly, demonstrated to all that despite the abundant talent in their starting lineup, they are a dynasty, champions so worthy of the name, valiant, gritty, determined, skilled.  It was just that Toronto, a team that the pundits thought might not make it to the NBA Finals, was too versatile, too resilient, too flexible, too tough.  But not by a whole lot.

Sadly, two great Warriors and top NBA players suffered awful injuries -- Kevin Durant in the beginning of Game 5 and then Klay Thompson in Game 6.  Both look to be out for all of next season.  Their injuries will make an already compelling off-season (and no one sets up drama for the off-season the way the NBA does) even more compelling, what with so many teams having sufficient cap space to sign a free agent to a max deal.  Will Durant opt out?  Where will Klay go?  Does the interest on the other free agents increase because of these injuries?  What will the Warriors do?  Will Kawhi stay in Toronto?  Will Kyrie go to Brooklyn and not Manhattan?  Will the Raptors' president stay in Toronto or take the purportedly huge deal the Wizards will offer him?  Where will T.J. McConnell go?  Okay, that last question might interest diehard 76ers' fans only, as they appreciated the hard work of the back-up PG during his seasons in the City of Brotherly Love.

It was a great night, a happy night, a sad night, a poignant night, a night to celebrate the best of basketball.  Both teams performed nobly, valiantly.  The refs also did a great job (save perhaps a late blocking call on Kyle Lowry that really was a charge on Boogie Cousins), and the three guys in the booth made salient comments without being obnoxious or tripping on one another.

What a great game!  Cannot wait for next season!

The Champions League Final

I realize it's a little late for fully blown commentary.  Overall, the game was a dud, and the better team won.  The soccer gods did justice to the soccer universe; Liverpool warranted a trophy after its amazing season in the English Premier League.  I mean, how many teams earn 97 points in a 38-game season and come in second place?  I wonder if any teams fared that well and finished second.  Spurs also had an excellent season, considering that they played most of their home games at a neutral site and had a smaller-than-optimal roster because of the funds they expended on their spectacular new stadium.  That lack of cash flow prevented them from making any moves in the off-season.  And as EPL fans learned within the past five years from a season in which City did the same thing -- stand pat -- and failed to repeat, standing pat and not tweaking your roster in a very competitive Premiership is a tough thing to do.

Both squads have excellent managers -- Juergen Klopp is en route to having a statue of him built outside Anfield and Mauricio Pochettino has done wonders in North London.  Liverpool has the world's best center back in Virgil van Dyk, an amazing attack, a top-five goalie and an underrated midfield, full of good leaders.  Spurs distinguished themselves through their gritty, hard-nosed play.  They too have stars -- among them, one of the world's best strikers in Harry Kane.  Yet, it was the decision to play Kane, or not to play Lucas Moura instead of one of Kane, Delle Alli or Son Heung-min that could haunt Spurs, Spurs' fans and Poch for a while.

All Moura did was singlehandedly will Spurs into the finals with a hat trick on the road in the Netherlands against an Ajax side that beat Spurs in North London 1-0 in the first match of the tie and then took a 2-0 lead.  That meant that Spurs needed to score 3 against Ajax on the road to propel themselves into Champions League final in Madrid on June 1.  And Moura scored all 3, including a goal on what had to be the final offensive opportunity in stoppage time.  How can you bench a player coming off a performance like that?  Moura was in top form, and he was a force to be reckoned with (and proved it again with the energy that he provided when he did come on in the final).  Poch deserves all the respect in the world, but he gambled starting both Kane (coming off an injury) and the bright young midfielder Harry Winks (also returning from an injury).  The gamble did not work; both were non-factors, Kane so much so that Spurs failed to take advantage of a 62-38% advantage in possession.

The future is very bright for both teams.  It seems as though Liverpool will be favored to win the Premiership next year, even with all of the might of Manchester City and City's having added Portuguese attacking midfielder Bruno Fernandes.  Liverpool undoubtedly will tweak its roster too.   Spurs, meanwhile, have a big decision to make on Christian Eriksen, their outstanding attacking midfielder.  Losing Eriksen would be a big setback for a team that has worked so hard to outpace its North London rival Arsenal and qualify for Champions League football.  Spurs' back-line has showed some age, and goalie Hugo Lloris has not been the stone wall that he once was.  But make no mistake -- Poch's teams are disciplined, organized and play within themselves.  Come to think of it, losing Poch to a team like Juventus would be a big blow too.

The game underwhelmed, but in the end the better team won.  And while, yes, I am an Arsenal fan, I have great respect for Spurs and what they have achieved.  They just did not have enough for Liverpool.

Then again, most teams don't.

Kawhi Leonard

The 2014 Spurs inspired me.  Actually, their wizardry on offense -- their crisp passing, the vision of three All-Stars (James, Wade and Bosh) running themselves ragged chasing the ball -- will be forever etched in my minds.  It brought tears to my eyes.  Why?

Hall of Fame coach Pete Carril once said that "a pass is not a pass if it is a last resort."  Hall of Fame lacrosse coach Bill Tierney, who won 6 national championships at Princeton and one at Denver is noted for saying "if the ball gets stuck in your stick, you will be sitting on the bench."  What do these legendary coaches mean -- that a player should be thinking about what he is going to do with the ball before he gets it.  The Spurs worked this theory to perfection that year -- and an outstanding coach in Erik Spoelstra and a core group of all-stars had no answer for what Greg Popovich and the Spurs did to them.  It was textbook basketball.  San Antonio put on a clinic.  So much so that I bought my son a championship t-shirt.  The reason?  To cherish excellence.

One of the Spurs, then a very young player in Kawhi Leonard, epitomized the basketball IQ that Coach Pop insisted upon from his players.  He knew where to be, he knew where his teammates would be and he knew both when it was time to be unselfish and when it was his turn to be the guy.   He put on an amazing performance in those finals, one that vaulted him to win the MVP award for that series.  He was just marvelous.

It is hard to argue with how good the following players are:  LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo.  All are excellent.

But are any of them better right now than Kawhi Leonard?

Pulling the Goalie

Last night, when the Blues went down 2-0 to the Bruins, I posited to a group of friends on a group text that Craig Berube, the Blues' interim head coach, should consider pulling his goalie with about 12 minutes to go in the third period if the Blues were down by two and say with 6 minutes to go if the Blues were down by one.  The reason, a brilliant article in the Wall Street Journal that did the math that suggested that NHL coaches are too conservative and don't give themselves the best chance to win if they only pull their goalies with about 90 seconds to go.  In other words, the conventional wisdom that has evolved over the years is dead wrong.  And one of my friends, a bright guy, posited the same thing -- that it was too risky.

After the Blues went down 2-0 I decided to go to bed, if for no other reason that I thought that the Blues were just unlucky last night, that Tuuka Rask translated from Finnish into mid-American English means "Iron Door on Hockey Goal" and that Berube would do nothing out of the box to try to cut the deficit.  As it turned out, the game turned into a route, and now the Blues are returning to Boston with the series tied at 3 for Game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals.

This by no means is an indictment of the Blues or Berube.  The Blues were hockey's worst team on January 2, and Berube has performed nothing short of a miracle in St. Louis. That said, doing things because, well, "that's always the way things have been done" might help avoid a coach from getting fired for making wild bets with his strategy, but at the same time might prevent him from being a transcending innovator.  Food for thought for hockey -- this is an exciting series.

Oh, and I did not post a hyperlink to the article because there is a paywall.  But look for the article or a scholarly paper or two on the topic -- you will find it compelling.