The Philadelphia 76ers' spin machine will work overtime to pat the franchise on the back for its heroic effort in its playoff series against the Toronto Raptors and losing Game 7 on a last-second shot to one of the best players in the game. If spin were the measurement for success of an NBA franchise, the 76ers would be champions. The reality is something far more stark -- especially since the team lost badly twice in this series.
First, the team reinvented itself twice during the regular season. How could it have expected to get to the conference finals with a group that had hardly gotten to mesh together? Especially when it was hard to find practice time for the whole squad together, since star center Joel Embiid was dealing with an iffy knee and other health problems. The expectation was unrealistic. And it shows how far the team is from being an elite one.
Second, the team only has four players signed for next season -- Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Zhaire Smith and Jonah Bolden. It needs to find 11 more players. Even if say 3-5 of the current squad come back, the remainder of the roster will take some time to come together with the current squad. That there are 13 teams with cap room to sign a player to a max deal (and a few might have room to sign two players to max deals) exacerbates the team's problems. There are not 13 or more players worthy of a max deal, which means that there are owners out there who will overpay for players. And that means the competition will be fierce for Jimmy Butler, who is worthy of one, and Tobias Harris, who is not. The Clippers traded Harris for what they could get because they did not think him worthy of a max deal, and, as it turns out, they fleeced the "win now" 76ers for Landry Shamet and three first-round picks, killing whatever might have been left of Sam Hinkie's thoughtful "process." Don't expect the roster to be a cornucopia of high-ceiling players; at least three will have significant holes in their games and be satisfied being part of the "happy to be here" club. Flying on private jets and staying in five-star hotels are great perks.
Third, Ben Simmons' lack of a jump shot kills the current makeup of the team. Absolutely kills it. NBA basketball people know it; the press seems to ignore it, look at the positives, defend Simmons for being "only 22," point to his highlights and his stat lines. The latter, though, are only part of the story. Simmons touches the ball more than any other player in the league, and is happy to dribble the ball hard down the court, take off near the foul line, turn his back to the basket and try to find an open man. That's a strategy? Because Simmons cannot shoot, Coach Brett Brown, about whom an open question remains whether the players still listen to him, locates Simmons on the low blocks. Why? Because put Simmons up high and the defenders will lay off him -- he cannot and will not shoot. As it turns out, putting Simmons on the low blocks is worse. He clogs that area, takes it away from the league's most devastating low blocks player, Embiid, and enables his man to double Embiid, who publicly is magnanimous in his comments but privately must be livid. Simmons might thrive in a run-and-gun scenario; he is doom to a half-court offense. That he did not work on a jumper last summer is a reflection on his desire and character. If he does not develop one this summer, the 76ers will have a huge problem, perhaps insurmountable.
Fourth, Embiid needs to get into better shape. Part of this is on him -- he has to lay off the milk shakes and try to get in the pool when his knee is bothering him. It seems like he knows this, has accepted this and will accept this challenge. Part of this is on the team -- NBA teams range widely in their attention to nutrition and fitness, and would be well-advised to take pages out of the books of European soccer teams to condition their players better. An in-shape Embiid, one who can play 75 regular-season games, is a top-5 player.
Fifth, the front office seems to be dysfunctional. The owners are New York private equity guys with little connection to the city and to the fans. They hired a general manager with precious little experience (even if he is by all accounts a good guy), perhaps because Elton Brand was the only person willing to take the job. They are sharks about promotion and maximizing ticket value, but after the hype you have a team that is an odd aggregation of parts, not all of whom function in harmony most of the time. Brand is outmatched as a GM, and it seems as though Jerry West and the Clippers took him to the cleaners on the Harris deal. Odd that the league forced the team's hand to oust Hinkie and bring in the younger Colangelo because of the older Colangelo's thinly veiled interest in what was best for the league (and that Adam Silver failed to see a hidden agenda) but failed to step in to thwart this version of highway robbery. This trade was a disaster. Harris seemed to melt a little every time the lights got brighter.
Sixth, speculation will run rampant about free-agent signings and who goes where. Butler and Embiid do not seem compatible with Simmons, and Brown's coaching seemed to favor Simmons over Embiid and Butler. Butler only will return if a) Philly offers him the most money (and it can offer more to him than others) and b) if Philly offers him the best opportunity at a championship ring (much more doubtful). The bet here is that he goes elsewhere, and to play for and with a coach who is more aligned to his style of play. The bet here is that the team will sign Harris -- to a max deal -- and hype it to the max. Then they will pursue various free agents, but it seems unclear as to who might be a good fit.
Seventh, as for free agents, some speculate that the team will sign a point guard -- such as Kemba Walker or D'Angelo Russell. Fine, but then what of a Ben Simmons without a jump shot? That point guard will not want to co-exist with a Simmons who has to run the offense. So, can you turn a Simmons without a jumper into a power forward? Yes? No? Is that what you drafted him for? Or does he just morph into a much better hyped form of a Michael Kidd-Gilchrist? Simmons cannot co-exist with a true point guard, and the team does need some guards who can guard other teams' guards; it failed mightily in that regard this past season.
Eight, and this goes along with the prior points, can you trade Ben Simmons? Opinions vary as to his worth. My view is that he is not now viewed as someone who was worth the top pick in the NBA draft. My view also is that there are a few front offices who still might view him that way and might want to build their franchise around him. Which begs the question -- who are those desperate owners and general managers and who might they offer for Simmons? One logical franchise is Sacramento, which just missed the playoffs, which has a bevy of pedigreed young players and a head of basketball who has been known to make bad decisions in the past. Can you get Vlade Divac to give you De'aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley, Jr. or Willie Cauley-Stein for Simmons? If you can, make the deal, and make it fast.
Nine, the team needs to sign bench players. Mike Scott and James Innis are worthy of a return; Greg Monroe and Boban Marjanovic should go. JJ Redick is worthy of a return, but at compensation far less than the $23 million the team gave him last year. That makes seven players when you include the four signed up for next year. The team needs eight more, so if you add the first-round pick the team has it will need seven more players. That is a tall order for any team, let alone one that is touting itself as building for even better years. The status of the roster suggests a desperate ownership group that cashed in many chips for an obviously flawed "win now" strategy. It also suggests that it is a funny way to build a contender for the future.
This off-season is crucial for the 76ers. Get it right, and they get to the conference finals. Get it wrong, and a downward spiral might begin.
And then the process was just that -- interrupted, flawed, failed. With nothing to show for it except a sizzle machine that is worthy of Hall of Fame mention.
And plenty of empty seats.
Again.
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