Mike Trout Gave the Angels a Great Deal

I happened to run into a former Phillie, still involved with the club, recently, and offered that after Bryce Harper set the market with his 13-year $330 million dollar deal that Mike Trout, Philadelphia-area native and one of the top ten position players of all-time, even in his age 27 year, gave the Angels a great deal when he signed for 12 years and $430 million.  That Phillie was puzzled, perhaps because of the old sports reporting that seemed to pair Harper and Trout together as equivalents.  I offered to this former player, who probably was thinking "who is this nerd and both are getting way too much money at the expense of good positions players like I was," that the career production numbers bore this out.

Let's take a look at career Wins Above Replacement Player --

Mike Trout -- 9 seasons, 66.1
Bryce Harper -- 8 seasons, 27.6.

So even if you extrapolated for Harper and added 3.5 to his WAR to provide a more precise comparison, Harper would be at 31.1 for career WAR, which still would be less than half that of Trout's.

Here is some more perspective:

Trout's career WAR going into this season put him tied with Hall of Famer Goose Goslin for 92nd on the all time-list.  It took Goslin 18 seasons -- twice as many -- to achieve the same WAR.  The only active players -- all in their twilight -- ahead of Trout are Albert Pujols (39 years old, 19 seasons, 99.9 WAR -- 21st all time), Miguel Cabrera (36 years old, 17 seasons, 69.5 career WAR -- 71st all-time) and Robinson Cano (36 years old, 15 seasons, 69.0 career WAR -- 75th all time).  So, it stands to reason that Trout will pass all of them during his career, and Cabrera and Cano pretty soon.

In contrast, Harper's career WAR puts him tied for 607th all-time, with, among others, Clete Boyer, Dave Henderson, Davey Johnson, Tip O'Neill, Randy Winn and last year's NL MVP, Christian Yelich (who has seven seasons under his belt and was 27 going into this season.).  Active players ahead of Harper include Kyle Seager (31 years old, 8 seasons, 28.0 WAR), Anthony Rizzo (29 years old, 9 seasons, 29.0 WAR), Hunter Pence (36 years old, 13 seasons, 29.7 WAR), Martin Prado (35 years old, 14 seasons, 29.8 WAR), Elvis Andrus (30 years old, 11 seasons, 30.4 WAR), Howie Kendrick (35 years old, 14 seasons and 30.8 WAR), Jacoby Ellsbury (35 years old, 11 seasons and 31.1 WAR), Brian McCann (35 years old, 15 seasons, 31.6 WAR), Nick Markakis (who has a shot at 3,000 hits) (35 years old, 14 seasons and 32.6 WAR), Nolan Arenado (28 years old, 7 seasons, 32.9 WAR), Adam Jones, (33 years old, 14 seasons, 33.0 WAR), Edwin Encarnacion (36 years old, 15 seasons, 33.1 WAR), Freddie Freeman (29 years old, 10 seasons, 33.6 WAR), Nelson Cruz (38 years old, 15 seasons, 33.8 WAR), Shin-Soo Choo (36 years old, 15 seasons, 33.8 WAR), Andrelton Simmons (29 years old, 8 seasons, 34.5 WAR), Lorenzo Cain (33 years old, 10 seasons, 34.8 WAR), Manny Machado (26 years old, 8 seasons, 34.9 WAR), Justin Upton (31 years old, 12 seasons, 35.1 WAR), Jayson Heyward (29 years old, 10 seasons, 35.6 WAR), Jose Altuve (29 years old, 9 seasons, 35.6 WAR), Mookie Betts (26 years old, 6 seasons, 35.9 WAR), Alex Gordon (35 years old, 13 seasons, 36.3 WAR), Brett Gardner (35 years old, 12 seasons, 37.2 WAR), Russell Martin (36 years old, 14 seasons, 37.5 WAR), Ryan Zimmerman (34 years old, 15 seasons, 37.7 WAR), Hanley Ramirez (35 years old, 15 seasons, 38.0 WAR), Yadier Molina (36 years old, 16 seasons, 38.9 WAR), Josh Donaldson (33 years old, 9 seasons, 39.1 WAR), Giancarlo Stanton (29 years old, 10 seasons, 39.7 WAR), Buster Posey (32 years old, 11 seasons, 41.1 WAR), Paul Goldschmidt (31 years old, 9 seasons, 41.1 WAR), Andrew McCutcheon (32 years old, 11 seasons, 42.9 WAR), Troy Tulowitzki (34 years old, 13 seasons, 44.2 WAR), Ben Zobrist (38 years old, 14 seasons, 45.2 WAR), Ryan Braun (35 years old, 13 seasons, 45.9 WAR), Curtis Granderson (38 years old, 16 seasons, 47.7 WAR), Dustin Pedroia (35 years old, 14 seasons, 51.7 WAR), Evan Longoria (33 years old, 12 seasons, 51.7 WAR), Ian Kinsler (37 years old, 14 seasons, 57.0 WAR), Joey Votto (35 years old, 13 seasons and 58.9 WAR), and then Trout and the three players ahead of him.

Now, the list of players head of Trout has many players ahead of him who are older and played more seasons, and it's not totally fair to have a WAR per season stat because of partial seasons (not fair to count a season with 700 plate appearances the same as one with say 50 when a player was a September call-up as a youngster).  Some of these players are there because of longevity, true, and their performance has tailed off and/or they are at the tail end of their careers.  That said, performances do level off (ask Andrew Jones about how much fun he had during this past free-agent season), which means there is no guarantee that Harper's current WAR projects to another 3.5 WAR per season over the 13 seasons to give him a career war of over 72 and a perch in the Hall of Fame.  But history and the data suggest that Harper may have his struggles come his age 31 or age 32 season.  Recent history compels critical thinking along those lines.

But back to the comparison.  Trout already is ahead of the following Hall of Famers in career WAR -- Craig Biggio, AndrewDawson, Willie McCovey, Dave Winfield, Richie Ashburn, Billy Williams, Billy Hamilton, Lou Boudreau, Home Run Baker, Jackie Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Zack Wheat, Yogi Berra, Mike Piazza, Vladimir Guerrero, Ichiro (a first-ballot shoo-in), Bill Dickey, Hank Greenberg, Willie Stargell, Luis Aparacio, Bill Terry, Tony Perez, George Sisler, Joe Sewell, Jimmy Collins, Harry Hooper, Joe Tinker, Kirby Puckett and Orlando Cepeda.  Harper is behind such non-Hall of Famers as Terry Steinbach, Dennis Menke, Cesar Tovar, Sixto Lezcano, Coco Crisp, Mickey Tettleton, Chris Speier, Darin Erstad, Robby Thompson, Don Money, Mark Belanger, Chuck Knoblauch, Brian Giles and Johnny Damon, among others.

This is not to say that Harper is a bad player.  This is not to say that Harper is not a very good player.  This also is not to say that Harper has no shot at the Hall of Fame, when, in fact, he has a good shot.  This is not to say that Harper is not magnetic, that he did not sell jerseys and jersey shirts and that he did not sell tickets.  While his WAR negatively compares to that of Manny Machado, Harper sold about eight times as many tickets upon the announcement of his signing than Machado did in San Diego.  But what this comparison does say is how exception a player Mike Trout is.  Year after year, he has put up amazing numbers.  Harper's numbers do not compare.

You could make the argument that if Harper was worth 13 years at $330 million, Trout was worth not $430 million over 12 seasons, but $609 million over those same 12 years (formula -- $330 million x 2 divided by 13 and then times 12).  The Angels got a bargain.

Like Harper.

Love Trout.

Take a look at Baseball Reference or Baseball Prospectus and compare the numbers.  They are not that close.