What Really is Hurting the NFL's Ratings?

President Trump taunts the NFL about its ratings.


Pundits surmise many theories as to why ratings are down, from the quality of product to the time it takes to play games to the protests by kneeling, the protests against the kneeling, the lack of scarcity (i.e., the NFL is on TV three days per week), the availability of other entertainment alternatives, the abhorrence of what has happened to former players and an unwillingness to watch a game where its players could get maimed for life, the obsession with fantasy football at the expense of watching the games and the presence of the Red Zone, which enables fans to pick highlights over the games themselves. 


All are good theories.  I subscribe to each of them.  There are those who are protesting because Colin Kaepernick does not have a job.  There are those who are boycotting because they believe that the protests by kneeling are an assault on the flag and the military.  (The contrary view is that the protests are against police brutality or insensitivity and are not in opposition to the flag or the military).  There is a lot of entertainment from which to choose, and college games can be more compelling (if not in conflict) because if the big-time teams lose one game, well, they could be out of the playoff picture.  Put differently, there is a lot of football on television all the time.  The games also take a long time; lots of stoppages, and one recent game I watched took four hours to complete.  Some friends feel guilty because of the "after" stories of people like Kevin Turner, Rickey Dixon, John Mackey and many, many more.  Some seem to care more about winning fantasy points than watching the games.  I tend to watch the Red Zone when my home team is not playing; I don't want to endure the timeouts and stoppages, I just want the action.


There is no single reason.  I am sure that for some who no longer watch there are combinations of factors.  All of these reasons are problematic, plus the fact that the average age of an NFL fan is about 50 years old (baseball fans are even older).  I do not know what the solution is, but an 8% drop has hurt those who cover the games -- they just cannot generate the revenue through commercials that they could if the viewership went up.  Atop that, I am ignorant as to whether companies prefer internet advertising to television advertising.  ESPN's financial troubles are well-chronicled.  Hindsight suggests that they overpaid for TV rights, and since they cannot generate sufficient advertising revenue or subscription revenue they are letting staff go.  And that begs another question . . .


Is viewership down because cable subscriptions are down and, therefore, Millenials are watching through streaming video or pooling resources to watch games or going to bars to do so.  If there is one bill in the house homeowners hate, it is their cable bill.  If isn't that, it's the cell phone bill.  And if something has to give, are people preferring to get what they can through Netflix and Amazon Prime and not wanting to pay for television.  The decline in subscriptions to cable networks suggestions that there is something to this argument.


The NFL is popular, yes, but something strange and potentially transformative is going on.  In 20 years, it will be virtually a flag football league, played more like lacrosse in terms of hitting than what it used to be.  The statistics seem to suggest that, as you just cannot have increasingly bigger and faster players hit each other hard -- even if they only do so in games and not at practices -- and not have that hitting occur at a staggering cost to the participants' well being.  As it is, even putting that problem aside, the game has issues because stars get hurt and then their teams can turn into mush.  Green Bay has struggled without Aaron Rogers, Indianapolis is pathetic without Andrew Luck, and Houston will list and limp without Deshaun Watson. 


I have written before that pro football is on top but that it could drop significantly because of decisions it is and is not making and because of factors beyond its control.  If I were the NFL, I'd spend my money on an Evolution Committee before spending too much time and energy on other matters.  Many factors are trending down, and, if they combine, they could create a storm that, when it happens, the pundits will say the owners should have seen coming.