Long Absence . . .

I am not a scientist.  I am not an astrophysicist.  Yet, I sometimes have wondered about the solar system.  How many planets are really out there?  We only can see so many, but does that mean that there are only the ones that we see?  How do we know, for example, that there are not advanced life forms living on planets that we cannot see, that perhaps do not need a certain proximity to the sun to guarantee survival?  The questions can be endless.

I sometimes have wondered what if the world as we know it ceased to exist.  Perhaps a series of nuclear explosions led all world leaders to lose their minds and destroy the earth.  Would absolutely nothing be left?  No life anywhere?  That's kind of deep; I do not think about this too often.

But now we are dealing with the issue that there are no sports -- anywhere.  Anywhere save people playing e-sports in their own homes or doing whatever they can by themselves in their back yards, working out in home gyms and the like.  Name a sport, and it is not there.  March Madness is gone.  And so are many other things.  When you drive by fields to pick up groceries, no one is out there playing.  No one is permitted to.  Right now it is like lyrics from a Goo Goo Dolls Hit -- "Reruns are our history."  Except that in some cases, they are our present to.

Sports will return, no doubt.  How they return depends on how nasty this virus becomes and how hard it is to contain.  I'm not so worried ultimately about people sharing basketballs in competition or people sitting near one another at stadiums.  Again, and it is a matter of when, that should happen again and will happen again.  The bigger question will be what will sports programs and leagues look like?  Much of that will depend on how long this crisis lasts and how much this virus damages worldwide economies.

There are dominoes that could fall.  I am not privy to the TV contracts that pour billions into professional sports leagues and teams (with, of course, the elite leagues getting the lion's share of the money).  I also am not privy to the advertising contracts that enable the major networks to pay huge sums for the rights to broadcast games.  Likewise, I also am not privy to the balance sheets of the major leagues and clubs -- how much cash do they have in reserve, how much debt do they have.  And I also am not privy to the finances of many individuals -- will they re-up for TV packages and tickets to games when this all shakes out.  Ditto for corporate sponsors.  My overall estimate -- and I am not an economist -- is that certain teams and leagues will fail, that attendance will be down, revenue will be down, and, ultimately, player salaries will drop or be flat.  Of course, until all this shakes out, it is impossible to answer two gripping questions -- by how much and for how long?

Sports are important to many of us, the same way other cultural institutions are important to others -- museums, theatre, symphonies.  All organizations are hurting save the mega-corporations that procure and deliver necessary household items and food at this time.  The same way COVID-19 does not spare people because of their birth, race or religion, it does not spare any industry or institution economic damage.  It is an equal opportunity disruptor.

Certain leagues rely heavily on TV money and income beyond ticket sales.  A prime example of that type of league is Major League Baseball, which has seen its attendance drop for a while.  COVID-19 could change some of baseball's economics and even the way the game is played.  I wonder if the average fan will want to stay as long at a ball park given fear -- rational after a vaccine program or otherwise -- of staying in the same stadium with 35,000 others for an extended period of time, especially when the ball is not in play for 90% or more of that time.  The traditional feeding system of MLB has been a minor league system that seems leveraged and under-funded; the players clearly are underpaid, and there were plans to drop many franchises.  Those that survive will need financial help to do so.  Local business groups and municipalities will be hard-pressed to do so; they have many other pressing problems to attend to.

There are many other examples as to how things might have to change.  We all must be patient.  You can be sure that each league and each team is working on crisis planning, business interruption planning and contingency planning, running teams of people to workshop all types of different scenarios.  For example, the English Premier League seemingly needs to finish its season in order not to have to return about $1 billion in TV money to Sky Sports.  Right now, it is difficult to predict when this season might resume, but assuming it does it might have to under far different circumstances.  Might games be played without fans?  Could you have a situation where a team may activate more than 18 players for a match, and then have more substitutions -- say 6 or 8 per match instead of the longstanding 3?  After all, the injury risks looms large if players have to return quickly after training sub-optimally. 

This is the type of crisis that no lawyer could have foreseen when drafting contracts.  I always have said that it is better to have a wonderful business partner and a "meh" contract than a great contract with a "meh" business partner.  These are times where good business partners need to get together, toss out the old agreements, and do what makes sense to help the sporting world re-open when it can and return to its robustness as quickly as possible.  To do so might require some new capital, some creative structures (such as back-end loaded payouts), but there are many who have the creativity to do just that.

Of course, getting the entire world back to work and assuring their basic needs is of paramount importance.  This compelling need eclipses those of the sporting world, period.  Besides, if the world does not take care of its own, there will not be any fans to cheer, let alone people to work at the stadiums, people to sell merchandise, food and beer outside the stadiums and people to work for the clubs.

Today, the rivalries that sometimes fuel us and help our teams get to great heights do not seem to matter much.  We all are fans of Real Madrid, Barcelona, ManUnited, the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Lakers, New England Patriots, Boston Celtics, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, because we all are in this together. 

Social distancing stinks; it is a must.  Playing sports video games has its limits, as does working out in the home gym.  In certain ways, we all need to impose upon ourselves the self-discipline that champions display in every sport -- denying themselves many things in order to excel and be the best.  This is a test for us all -- we need to focus, act smartly, take care of ourselves and our families, and our physical and emotional health.  Yes, sports would have helped us with that, but right now it carries too much risk. 

So, here's to hoping that we take care of ourselves and each other well enought that we can contribute to a vigorous sporting world when the time comes that we can. 

And then the rivalries will return.  We might look at them differently forever as to how much they really matter, but they will be back. 

And we will have much to be thankful for when that happens, because it also will mean that the worst is over.