If You Listen to the Fans Too Much. . .

Most of us have heard the full adage, one that veteran general managers or directors of football or whatever they are called in any sport tell the newbies -- if you listen to the fans too much, you will end up sitting in the stands with them.

I hearken back, though, to advice that King George VI gave to Winston Churchill when the latter was pondering how to guide England right as France was falling and the entire British Army was stranded on the beaches of Dunkirk.  There was sentiment among some in the leadership of the Conservative Party to negotiate a peace with Adolf Hitler, on the grounds that Britain could not win a war and also out of the hope that Britain really wasn't part of Hitler's plans.  Churchill was most uneasy about this, but the circumstances were dire.  Britain was on the brink of having its army wiped out, and its island attacked mercilessly from the air and sea. 

The king, who admittedly did not have a vote in the democracy, told the prime minister that in tough times he should listen to the people, and they will guide him.  And what Churchill discerned was that the people by and large had the same thoughts and instincts that he did -- not to settle, but to fight to the bitter end.  And fight Britain did.

There is a tough balancing act that leaders must achieve.  On the one hand, their followers look to them for vision and energy and to set out a course for success.  On the other hand, the voters expect to be listened to, to have access, and to feel like they count.

The same holds true for soccer fans.  If you were to submit the course of a team to a plebiscite of the fans, you would end up with an unmanageable amoeba that could not win a a match in a Sunday pub league.  By the same token, if you do not listen to the fans at all -- and do not admit to seeing the same problems that they do when the problems are obvious -- you risk having them not purchase tickets and staying home. 

Such was the case for Tottenham, but perhaps much less desperately so than for Everton, Newcastle and of course Arsenal.

Let's dispatch with Spurs first.  Mauricio Pocchetino is one of the five best managers in the world.  He turned Tottenham from an important if disappointing team into a force than can be reckoned with. True, he did not win any titles, but he turned chaos into order after the team sold Gareth Bale to Real Madrid and made a bunch of signings that did not work out.  Yet, the team probably ran its course with Poch, sad is it was to see.  The players got older, and perhaps older players aren't as responsive to such an intense style after they have been playing at the highest level for years.  Atop that, well, it appeared to many that passing Liverpool and City were just too hard to do under this manager.  So, Daniel Levy, the owner, made a bold decision, one that surprised the fans because they were not asking for Poch's head.  And that was to bring in Jose Mourinho, the successful if controversial manager and won who has won plenty of silverware.  Mourinho did good things at Real Madrid and Chelsea twice, struggled at United, and will try to summon his old magical ways to propel Spurs to some silverware.  While Spurs struggles resulted from an inflexible Poch, a perplexing Levy and some poor efforts from players, you have to give ownership credit where credit is due -- the team seemed stuck, and when that happens, it's much easier to sack the manager than sack half a dozen players mid-season.  This was, after all, the same squad that went to the Champions League finals a year ago.

Now let's get to Arsenal.  After ownership pushed out legend Arsene Wenger in a clumsy way (it says here that they should have urged Wenger out when Juergen Klopp rocketed to the top of the coaching most wanted list after his run at Dortmund), it struggled to come up with a good short list to replace him.  Remember, even though Arsenal has been in the bottom third of the world's top 15 clubs for much of the past 10 years, it remains an iconic club in a great city.  And their short list -- former player Mikel Arteta, the top assistant for Pep Guardiola at City although not long-tenured, Max Allegri, very successful in Italy and at Juventus (with the concern that Juve had on its roster 10 of the top 12 most highly paid players in Serie A, something that Arsenal could not come close to matching in the Premier League) and the guy who got the job, Unai Emery, under fire at PSG after a successful stint at La Liga's Seville.  Not exactly an overwhelming short list. 

And they chose Emery.  One of the proffered reasons was that he had success managing a roster in its league and in the Europa League competition, and that would augur well for fifth-place Arsenal.  If that was a major factor, it was very short-sighted.  This is a club that was used to playing Champions League soccer, and it selected a manager for a parochial reason.  Liverpool did not hire Klopp to get it over a hill; it hired Klopp, with a track record of developing players into superstars, to climb the biggest mountain in world soccer -- the Champions League.  Emery seemed like a consolation prize.  Sure, Wenger was plucked as an unknown from the Japanese League, but he had great foresight into what modern soccer would look like.  Emery did not seem to be any sort of visionary.

Then Arsenal did the unexpected in the off-season.  It started to overhaul its roster.  It hired well-respected former player Maurice Edu to be its director of football, and then it loaned out or sold some players who were surplus or not performing well, promoted some exciting young talent and made its most expensive acquisition to date, a fast winger with a "box of tricks," Lille's Nicolas Pepe.  The thought was that the Gunners might struggle at the outset of the season -- its fullbacks were injured and Pepe had to get up to the fitness standards of the Premier League, but once that happened Arsenal would challenge for third or fourth place and return to the Champions League.

But instead of building patiently toward getting everyone healthy and fit, and instead of creating a tasty salad whose ingredients enrich each other, Emery put the team into a blender and said to the fans -- "it might not look great, but it should taste good, trust me."  Except the ingredients changed from match to match, players were playing out of position, Emery was feuding with the team's best passer and most highly paid player, and Emery was refusing to play Pepe consistently.  Atop that, he had no faith in his midfield, to the point where he was playing five defenders and two defensive midfielders and no center attacking midfielder who could pass the ball well.  Which meant that instead of putting on an offensive show with all its talent, Arsenal was playing not to lose. 

And then they started drawing and losing.  All fans saw this train wreck for what it was -- either a manager in over his head or one who was so worried about defense that he forgot that the strength of the team is the offensive talent that has been amassed.  So bad has the team become that all opponents start their matches against Arsenal with a full-field high press, as if to say, "hey, we do not believe you can get the ball up the field under pressure, so until you do, we will make your lives miserable."  The exclamation point happened this past weekend, when Southampton's high press created a goal in the first minutes of the game that set the tone for a stoppage-time goal and late draw against 19th-placed Southampton -- on Arsenal's home turf.

It's one thing to have fans react after a disastrous match and call for the sacking of the manager.  Relying on single data points can lead to terrible decisions.  But Emery has amassed a significant body of work -- and one that is no better than Wenger's during an equivalent period at the end of Wenger's tenure.  What makes this point critical is that if you are going to replace your manager, you had better hire someone better.  And while the decision to hire Emery was questionable at the time, it looks bad now.  He is not better than Wenger; he isn't nearly as good.  The fans see it, and apparently the players do, too. 

Management, though, has created a vacuum and said nothing publicly.  From my experience on a management team, what happens when management says nothing on a critical point is that a vacuum emerges.  And the rank-and-file fill the vacuum with whatever they want to, whatever they're thinking, and whatever seems obvious to them.  And it can be horribly wrong. 

There has been all sorts of speculation about Emery's future, as follows:

* management totally backs him.
* management will wait until the end of this season to decide his fate.
* management will let him work for the remainder of his contract (1.5 years)
* management will wait until after the results of the next 3 (very winnable) matches to decide his fate.
* the manager they really want will not be available until after the season ends
* the players are starting to want out -- Aubameyang, Lacazette, Torreira, Ozil, Bellerin.

All of this is very bad.  Management historically has been tone deaf; the results of much of the Stan Kroenke era have been sub par when compared to Arsenal's historical standards.  Ownership gave fans some hope over the summer after the major fan groups banded together to send a public letter expressing their frustration to Stan and his son, Josh, as it hurts very much as to the personal monies the owners of Chelsea and City have put into their teams.  To his credit, Josh responded the next day, and Arsenal most surprisingly was very active in the transfer window.  Mostly all agreed that Raul Sanellhi and Edu vastly improve the team.  Emery, though, remained a question mark.

Now ownership is at a precipice.  Sure, they would have to pay Emery a rumored 4.5 million pounds sterling as a severance payment.  But that's a cost of doing business these days.  And how can ownership let its archrival be bold, make a 12.5 million pounds sterling payment to Poch and commit even more money to Jose Mourinho.  How can they let themselves be upstaged? 

Arsenal's current record is bad enough.  But risking losing a core group of players is too much to bear.  Bravery and decisiveness are required.  Ownership must terminate Emery's contract and either bring in Max Allegri or Poch or make Freddie Ljunberg, the assistant manager, the caretaker until the season's end and then consider whether to bring in Arteta (now more seasoned), Bournemouth's miracle man Eddie Howe, Allegri, Poch or someone else, perhaps even Zinadine Zidane if he parts company with Real Madrid (a position for which Poch might be waiting). 

Doing so will fill the news vacuum with the fans, as well as, more importantly, the leadership vacuum.  Doing so will restore credibility.  And doing so is likely to keep all of the players in line and ready to move forward -- positively together.

If ownership does not do this, the Kroenkes should sell the team to someone who will.  For their track record is one of owning, not winning.  It is time for Stan and Josh to think hard about their legacy -- and start to take steps to win silverware. 

Now is a good time to start.

Jose Mourinho and Tottenham

How much money does Daniel Levy have in the bank or available to him in terms of a line of credit?

The reason I'm asking is that Tottenham has not spent a ton of money on the transfer market, especially when compared to the likes of Manchester City and Manchester United.  Of particular interest is that recently United spent a lot of money after it hired -- you guessed it -- Jose Mourinho -- as its manager.  That hire did not work out for either party.  United continues to search for the magic after the great reign of Sir Alex Ferguson, and Mourinho is looking to attain the glory that he achieved in Spain and in West London and that eluded him in Manchester.

What's curious is that Mourinho likes to spend on transfers.  Historically, Spurs have not.  And Spurs have to pay off their stadium, and they had to pay a tidy sum to Mauricio Pocchetino as an exit payment and a good deal of money to bring Mourino to the lane.  So what happens next?

Mourinho recently said that he doesn't need more players, he just needs to see what he can get out of the players at Tottenham.  Fair enough, but this is a fourteenth place team, a team that has four veterans who might want out, and a team that might have more veterans wanting out should the methods of Mourinho not suit them.  Atop that, Poch did magic with the squad, given that most pundits did not believe Spurs to be deep enough to make deep runs in Champions League or for cup trophies.  Poch got Spurs close to Champions League glory.  Now the roster is even older.

Did Poch lose the locker room?  Or did the locker room lose belief because they started to feel that last year was as good as it was going to get -- not necessarily with that manager, but with that squad?  To me, the answer to the latter question is the most compelling, as the consensus of the pundits seems to be that the team hit a wall, that Poch is a great manager, and that Mourinho is a great manager but that hiring him is a risk, as he seemingly has gotten battier as he has gotten older.

All of this seems to suggest that Spurs might overhaul the roster after this season.  It could be that Christian Eriksen and Danny Rose exit in January, and who knows what the fates of Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld will be?  This is where Mourinho comes in -- he likes to acquire, and he might have some leeway to do so.  That explains why Daniel Levy hired Mourinho to begin with.

Spurs should elevate in the standings with a new manager, at a minimum because the squad has to be embarrassed that their play managed to get a great manager sacked.  And it could be that Mourinho unlocks some problems in the lineup and strengthens the attack.  But the risk also is there that he goes to war with a key player or too, creating more disharmony.  Whatever the case, it all should be good theater.

Meanwhile, Poch now is the best manager available.  It was surprising that Arsenal did not grab him, but then again, they should have changed out Arsene Wenger years before they did to get the red-hot Juergen Klopp.  Their ownership is not decisive or that insightful, so they remained sentimental and loyal to Wenger.  Now it appears that they are just plain stubborn.  They missed out on Klopp, and it could be that Poch is at the Theatre of Dreams come this summer.  The odds, though, suggest that Poch will end up at Santiago Bernabeu, and enjoy lovely Madrid and taking that team back to winning Champions League trophies.