Great guy. Self-made, one of a lot of kids, the last one in the line, father died when he was a young teenager. Worked his rear end off, smart, serious, engaging, good husband, father, thoughtful, dependable, good neighbor, just a wonderful person.
We went to the Phillies game the other night, had a fun time, as the hometown nine won, this time in convincing fashion. We enjoyed the game and used it as a vehicle, as many do, to get caught up. We touched upon a lot of subjects, including the expense of going to a baseball game. My first reaction was to joke that the expense seemed to pale in comparison to going to a 76ers' game (where there are 41 home games to the Phillies' 81) or an Eagles' game (where there are only eight home games and the Eagles' make sure to get their monies' worth). But we did some basic math -- parking costs $20 if you want to park close enough not to exhaust your young kids by the time they get to the ball park. Tickets on the second level can cost roughly $35 apiece, which means that's $140 for a family of four. Let's say you need four waters -- at $5 apiece and you purchase food for four people. It's not cheap there, so let's say by the time you buy the French fries, chicken tenders, and perhaps other artery-clogging food and ice cream you spend say $30 on water (two for the adults) and another $70 on food. (Beers go for about $12 apiece, so let's surmise that the adults will not drink in front of the children -- not the best assumption at the ballpark). So the interim math is $20 for parking, $140 for tickets, and say $100 on food. Already that's $260 dollars. And for good measure perhaps you purchase a souvenir or two, you know, a Phillie Phanatic hat or a team hat or a jersey shirt or something, and let's say you spend another $60. That's about $320 for a family of four.
For one game. And let's suppose you want to go to several more during the season. That could be roughly $1,000 for four games. That's a lot of money, especially where the average income in the region is less than $60,000. Is it reasonable to expect someone to pay more than 1% of his/her income for the luxury of going to a baseball game and for an increasingly strange and hard-to-fathom product? Last year there were more strikeouts than hits in the game -- for the first time ever. And it took on average four minutes for a ball to go into play. Even taking into account the odd turns the game has taken, it remains expensive to go to a game.
So, some questions must be asked. Is it good business to charge $5 for a water as opposed to encouraging people to bring their own reusable water bottles and filling stations so that they can save money? Is it good business to charge what they do for food, too, and $20 for parking while they are at it? The principal owner of the team is worth more than $1 billion and vowed in the off-season to spend "stupid money" to sign free agents, and then gave Bryce Harper $330 million over 13 seasons for a guy who is about half as good as the unavailable and area native Mike Trout. Perhaps John Middleton paid "market" for Bryce Harper, and it stands to reason that he believes he bestowed many good things on his fans with that signing, the signing of Andrew McCutcheon, and the trades for Jean Segura and J.T. Realmuto. What he and his fellow owners -- all seemingly well-intentioned, good folks -- did not do was improve upon the fan experience in the one way that would help the fans -- making the game more affordable.
Those who defend baseball will argue that the game still draws a lot of fans and that only a few franchise have financial/attendance problems. And they might be right. I have gone on and on about the average age of a fan being 58 and how the younger generations are not flocking to the game because climate change has meant it is very hot to sit out there for 3.5-plus hours, because the game is increasingly boring with pitching changes, mound visits and strikeouts and such. When the average age of a fan is 58, what that means is that you have people who are making more money presumably in their jobs because they are at a point where they are highly paid or they are retired and have save up enough to spend their discretionary money on leisure.
Perhaps. But there is a big "but" in all of this. Most people do not have enough to retire on. The good economy will not last forever; we have not had a recession in 10+ years. Parking is not all that close to the stadium, and as people age they will not be able to get to the ballpark or do the necessary walking within the stadium to get to their seats. After all, the average person in the country is not in the best shape. Discretionary income might not be as discretionary for people as it is now. At some point people might say "are you crazy, I will not pay $5 for a water or $11 for a beer or $10 for crab fries. That is insane." (My family already is saying it). And with brutal competition for your internet/cable dollars, people might be content to watch at home (and that gets into a whole other set of issues -- loneliness and isolation, which could end up being bigger killers than heart disease and cancer). Putting all of this together, baseball has a unique opportunity to create a wonderful experience for a community -- where people can gather -- outside -- for a fun event that creates community. It really can do this.
If it doesn't price people out of the market. Especially when there are 81 games and the games are not as scarce as football (which has its own set of issues).
So back to our conversation. His refrain -- "how can the average guy afford this?"
The answer is, increasingly, that he cannot.
Even with a growing population. Even with a good economy.
Businesses can make decisions when they are on top or perceive that they are that can render themselves extinct. Boxing and horse racing used to be among the top five spectator sports. There is nothing to say that other games will not evolve them into more fringe sports. Minor league baseball is fun, fast and affordable. But the big-league game is not.
All you have to say is $5 for a water and you lose me at hello.
The Lords of Baseball should think hard about this.
And make some changes.
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Friday, April 19, 2019
Kate Smith and the Philadelphia Flyers
The Philadelphia Flyers became the hot ticket in Philadelphia in the early 1970's. It was not that hockey was all that understood or cool. Their popularity, in part, resulted from the abysmal performances of the major sports teams in the city at the time. The 76ers set an NBA record for futility, and the Phillies and Eagles were doormats. Enter the Flyers, with their swashbuckling, fighting style, and a gritty city was captivated. I mean, how could you not be, with larger-than-life characters such as Dave "The Hammer" Schultz, Andre "Moose" DuPont, Bob "The Hound" Kelly and Don "Big Bird" Saleski, along with all-star Bobby Clarke, stand-on-your-head goalie Bernie Parent, elegant forwards Rick MacLeish and Reggie Leach, along with leader-of-men defenseman Barry Ashbee?
The team was also superstitious after a bit. They would play a recording of Kate Smith's "God Bless America" before games, and, as it turned out, had an astounding record of something like 33-0-1 during the 1973-1974 season when they played a recording of this song before games. The more they won, the more they played Kate. Her rendition of that song was a motivator -- it inspired players and fans alike.
I was there -- in the fifth row behind the bench -- for the pivotal Game 6 in the 1974 Stanley Cup finals. The Flyers were up 3 games to 2 on the favored Boston Bruins, yes, the Bruins with all-world Bobby Orr and Hall of Famer Phil Esposito among many others. A friend of my dad's could not go, and there we were, amidst all the excitement. The lights dimmed during the pre-game warm-ups, and they rolled out a red carpet. Out walked Kate Smith, and the place went wild, people were on their feet, cheering, as if she were the star of the team. And she delivered a great performance -- just electric, in a perfect environment -- a hugely supportive audience at a very big moment. It was something to behold. The Flyers won that game, 1-0, in a hard fought game, and pandemonium ensued -- in the Spectrum, and on the streets. The Broad Street Bullies captured the hearts and minds of the city. And Kate Smith was their balladeer, signing an American classic before a Canadian game played mostly by Canadians in the city where the United States was born. Only in America.
Today, the Flyers (and New York Yankees) announced a very public divorce from everything and anything having to do with Kate Smith. The Flyers are covering a statue of her that is near the Wells Fargo Arena, where the Flyers currently play. And neither the Flyers nor the Yankees will play her rendition of 'God Bless America" ever again. The reason -- she sang some songs in the 1930's that had racist lyrics -- and there is no doubt that the lyrics in question were and are racist.
I take a deep breath when I say that the Flyers have done the right thing. I am not a person of color but only could imagine how I would feel if I were and the team continued to honor a person who proudly sang the lyrics in the songs in question. I would like to think that Kate Smith regretted these lyrics at some point in her life, that she disowned them at some point, and that if she were around today she would have gone nowhere near them. But I do not know that, and she is not here now to speak for herself or defend herself. And she did many good things for people, including raising money for war bonds during the Second World War at a time when the country really needed the money. People are complex, people have pasts, people make mistakes, sometimes big ones. Kate Smith made some big ones.
I have/had fond memories of that day at the Spectrum, with my dad, watching a team win a championship. Entwined in that memory are the pre-game festivities, and the surprise appearance of the icon Kate Smith. It was a huge deal then. My dad died about 10 years later, too young, and unexpectedly. My memories of times with him are not abundant, and many have faded. This was a big one. We cheered this unusual team in a sport with which we were not familiar (and my father also thought that it became popular in many circles in Philadelphia because the players were white and so were almost all of the fans -- something he disdained as he was a basketball fan at heart). And now what we have come to learn is that a person who generated part of the buzz and a lot of excitement either was a racist or at a minimum participated in some awful racist songs.
I will not take the joy from that as I did back then and as had become etched in my memory of that day. I can separate the two -- the game and Kate Smith's performance -- but I am less sure about the players and other fans, as that's how big Kate Smith's presence was during the season. I still cherish the time with my dad, and I know he would agree with the step that the team is taking. As do I, for that is what he and my mother taught me -- that all people are created equal and deserve to be treated with fairness and dignity -- deserving of an equal chance. The continued presence of Kate Smith would not represent those values. In the end, what my dad taught me is the best memory of all.
The team was also superstitious after a bit. They would play a recording of Kate Smith's "God Bless America" before games, and, as it turned out, had an astounding record of something like 33-0-1 during the 1973-1974 season when they played a recording of this song before games. The more they won, the more they played Kate. Her rendition of that song was a motivator -- it inspired players and fans alike.
I was there -- in the fifth row behind the bench -- for the pivotal Game 6 in the 1974 Stanley Cup finals. The Flyers were up 3 games to 2 on the favored Boston Bruins, yes, the Bruins with all-world Bobby Orr and Hall of Famer Phil Esposito among many others. A friend of my dad's could not go, and there we were, amidst all the excitement. The lights dimmed during the pre-game warm-ups, and they rolled out a red carpet. Out walked Kate Smith, and the place went wild, people were on their feet, cheering, as if she were the star of the team. And she delivered a great performance -- just electric, in a perfect environment -- a hugely supportive audience at a very big moment. It was something to behold. The Flyers won that game, 1-0, in a hard fought game, and pandemonium ensued -- in the Spectrum, and on the streets. The Broad Street Bullies captured the hearts and minds of the city. And Kate Smith was their balladeer, signing an American classic before a Canadian game played mostly by Canadians in the city where the United States was born. Only in America.
Today, the Flyers (and New York Yankees) announced a very public divorce from everything and anything having to do with Kate Smith. The Flyers are covering a statue of her that is near the Wells Fargo Arena, where the Flyers currently play. And neither the Flyers nor the Yankees will play her rendition of 'God Bless America" ever again. The reason -- she sang some songs in the 1930's that had racist lyrics -- and there is no doubt that the lyrics in question were and are racist.
I take a deep breath when I say that the Flyers have done the right thing. I am not a person of color but only could imagine how I would feel if I were and the team continued to honor a person who proudly sang the lyrics in the songs in question. I would like to think that Kate Smith regretted these lyrics at some point in her life, that she disowned them at some point, and that if she were around today she would have gone nowhere near them. But I do not know that, and she is not here now to speak for herself or defend herself. And she did many good things for people, including raising money for war bonds during the Second World War at a time when the country really needed the money. People are complex, people have pasts, people make mistakes, sometimes big ones. Kate Smith made some big ones.
I have/had fond memories of that day at the Spectrum, with my dad, watching a team win a championship. Entwined in that memory are the pre-game festivities, and the surprise appearance of the icon Kate Smith. It was a huge deal then. My dad died about 10 years later, too young, and unexpectedly. My memories of times with him are not abundant, and many have faded. This was a big one. We cheered this unusual team in a sport with which we were not familiar (and my father also thought that it became popular in many circles in Philadelphia because the players were white and so were almost all of the fans -- something he disdained as he was a basketball fan at heart). And now what we have come to learn is that a person who generated part of the buzz and a lot of excitement either was a racist or at a minimum participated in some awful racist songs.
I will not take the joy from that as I did back then and as had become etched in my memory of that day. I can separate the two -- the game and Kate Smith's performance -- but I am less sure about the players and other fans, as that's how big Kate Smith's presence was during the season. I still cherish the time with my dad, and I know he would agree with the step that the team is taking. As do I, for that is what he and my mother taught me -- that all people are created equal and deserve to be treated with fairness and dignity -- deserving of an equal chance. The continued presence of Kate Smith would not represent those values. In the end, what my dad taught me is the best memory of all.
Thursday, April 18, 2019
Jason Kelce -- Warrior or Crazy? Or Both?
I don't know if any of you have this problem watching football -- I watch it less and less as stories emerge about how the game's participants are maiming themselves for life and making themselves more likely for all sorts of debilitating and life-ending conditions. The NFL will downplay this, of course, as it is a multi-million dollar business, and the owners seem deaf and dumb to the problems. If they paid attention -- and had hearts -- they would pay the players more, guarantee more money and provide for them once these awful injuries manifest themselves. But they don't, and we read stories of broke and broken down players in all sorts of awful circumstances, stories that go beyond the poor souls that took their own lives or passed away from ALS or early-onset Alzheimer's and other dementia-like diseases. Those stories are crushing, and, absent a formal reporting system, it is difficult to discern the depth of the problem but relatively easy to believe that it is bigger than what gets reported.
How many more brain tissue samples must the group at Boston University test positive for chronic traumatic encephalopothy (CTE) before the game changes dramatically? There are too many sad cases, too many tough, rough stories, stories that are far in addition to the problems that players face immediately after leaving their sports -- depression, bankruptcy, divorce. First, the money, attention and adrenaline go, then the mind and the body.
Read this article in today's Philadelphia Inquirer by Bob Ford about the Philadelphia Eagles' All-Pro center Jason Kelce, he of the heroic play and the wonderful, heart-on-his-sleeve speech at the team's post-Super Bowl victory parade in the winter of 2018. If Kelce were a car, the insurance company would have considered him totaled, provided a check to the owner and sent him to the junkyard. He'd probably be worth more in parts than as a whole. As a football player, and someone undersized for his position, he puts himself through an inordinate amount of pain and physical damage to put himself out there every week, and it gets tougher as the years mount and the season progresses. My commentary is not a reflection of his character -- he is a leader, he says what is on his mind, and he produces at his job -- but a reflection on the game, on society, on decisions people make and to a degree on Kelce's sanity. Why put yourself through this? Kelce has skills and probably could make a considerable amount of money doing commentary in the studio, on games or on talk radio. None of those job descriptions require him to take painkillers, bang into people or go to work barely able to walk in order to earn a paycheck.
Not everyone, of course, is as fortunate. Kids get recruited out of high school, shunted to football factories where coaches make very good money and the primary reason the kids are there is to help the coaches keep their jobs, to help the university fill stadiums, earn money off television rights and also merchandise. They get scholarships, but they are renewable after one year, which means that if the coach has a change of heart or there is a new coach, the kid could be sent packing. As it is, many kids are channeled into easy majors, including those where they get credit for playing football, and come out of college having used up their eligibility without a degree or, if they graduate, who knows how meaningful the degree is. I get it that not everyone can master calculus or become a mechanical engineer, but our system should provide more support to these young men than it does now. Especially given how much attention football gets in our society and how much money is generated from it.
Our society is a reflection of the games we watch and cherish. There are many American "things" that have taken off in the world, among them medical innovations, smart phones, silicon computer chips, cars, basketball rap music. Baseball has not supplanted cricket, and neither basketball (which is very popular worldwide) or American football has replaced soccer as the world's most popular sport. Not even close. And a strong reflection of the uniqueness of American sport is that American football has not become popular anywhere else. Oh, sure, it draws crowds in England and there are minor attempts to play it in other countries, but let's face it -- it's violent, and most of the people who play it weigh a lot more than they should for their height (according to the National Institutes for Health, among others) and short-, mid- and long-term health. That those large people collide with one another creates major problems for them1950 , for their teams and for the league.
So let's circle back to Jason Kelce. There is little doubt that he is a warrior, and there seems to be little doubt that you have to be somewhat crazy to choose a job where you bang into people incessantly over several hours (even if practices are more tame than twenty years ago, there are rules to protect players more, there is concussion protocol, etc.). And then there is longstanding question of assumption of the risk and whether societal rules should protect people from each other (most would agree to that) or themselves (most would disagree, sometimes very strongly, on that). Should society step in or adopt a "survival of the fittest"/"let people do what they want" approach? President Teddy Roosevelt stepped in to reform the rules at the beginning of the 20th Century when young men were dying in games. Threatening legislation, the game reformed itself. I would submit, though, that the pace of reform has been slow and not all that much has changed since 1965 for the long-term health and welfare of the players.
Here are some somewhat random thoughts/factoids. Hall of Famer Ed Reed was quoted as saying that he played the game as a way out of poverty so that his sons would not have to. Go back fifty years, and that's what boxers said. Boxing was one of the five most popular sports fifty years ago -- it is not anymore. Fewer kids are playing the game, although HBO reported, sadly, that poor kids -- many of whom are kids of color, -- are still playing it at the same rate or even a higher rate. That is disturbing, too. That suggest that those who need their football fix -- the collisions, hard tackles -- are content to satisfy their needs with someone else's kids, but not their own. 80% of FBS (Division 1) schools have athletic departments that lose money. Many play to stadiums that are not full. Big-time college football in some parts (on Saturdays) and the NFL have become a big part of our culture. Many revolve their Saturdays and Sundays around football; it has become part of the ritual of tens of millions of people. And American football is an easy game to bet on -- there is a point spread (I confess I still have not figured out the difference between -150 and +430 for baseball games). It is the most popular spectator sport in the country.
But at what cost? To our national psyches, our national soul, our national caring, the quest to provide a good and decent society for all? Yes, there are many more significant problems in the United States and the world to solve for -- aging populations, rising healthcare costs, decaying infrastructure, staggering amounts of student loan debt, the absence of general practice medical doctors, income inequality, climate change among many others. Perhaps this issue even is a high-class problem, given all of the other problems facing us.
But watching people take this type of risk and clobbering each other? Is this a safer form of Christians versus lions or even watching lumberjacks beat the daylights out of each other in an empty box car in the train yard on the far side of down, with people throwing down money betting on who would prevail? Or are we kidding ourselves, and we really have not advance all that much over thousands of years?
Then ask yourself this question -- would you let your kid play this game? And if the answer is no, then why are you watching it? And why do Americans pay so much money to support it?
What does that say about you, us, our society?
How many more brain tissue samples must the group at Boston University test positive for chronic traumatic encephalopothy (CTE) before the game changes dramatically? There are too many sad cases, too many tough, rough stories, stories that are far in addition to the problems that players face immediately after leaving their sports -- depression, bankruptcy, divorce. First, the money, attention and adrenaline go, then the mind and the body.
Read this article in today's Philadelphia Inquirer by Bob Ford about the Philadelphia Eagles' All-Pro center Jason Kelce, he of the heroic play and the wonderful, heart-on-his-sleeve speech at the team's post-Super Bowl victory parade in the winter of 2018. If Kelce were a car, the insurance company would have considered him totaled, provided a check to the owner and sent him to the junkyard. He'd probably be worth more in parts than as a whole. As a football player, and someone undersized for his position, he puts himself through an inordinate amount of pain and physical damage to put himself out there every week, and it gets tougher as the years mount and the season progresses. My commentary is not a reflection of his character -- he is a leader, he says what is on his mind, and he produces at his job -- but a reflection on the game, on society, on decisions people make and to a degree on Kelce's sanity. Why put yourself through this? Kelce has skills and probably could make a considerable amount of money doing commentary in the studio, on games or on talk radio. None of those job descriptions require him to take painkillers, bang into people or go to work barely able to walk in order to earn a paycheck.
Not everyone, of course, is as fortunate. Kids get recruited out of high school, shunted to football factories where coaches make very good money and the primary reason the kids are there is to help the coaches keep their jobs, to help the university fill stadiums, earn money off television rights and also merchandise. They get scholarships, but they are renewable after one year, which means that if the coach has a change of heart or there is a new coach, the kid could be sent packing. As it is, many kids are channeled into easy majors, including those where they get credit for playing football, and come out of college having used up their eligibility without a degree or, if they graduate, who knows how meaningful the degree is. I get it that not everyone can master calculus or become a mechanical engineer, but our system should provide more support to these young men than it does now. Especially given how much attention football gets in our society and how much money is generated from it.
Our society is a reflection of the games we watch and cherish. There are many American "things" that have taken off in the world, among them medical innovations, smart phones, silicon computer chips, cars, basketball rap music. Baseball has not supplanted cricket, and neither basketball (which is very popular worldwide) or American football has replaced soccer as the world's most popular sport. Not even close. And a strong reflection of the uniqueness of American sport is that American football has not become popular anywhere else. Oh, sure, it draws crowds in England and there are minor attempts to play it in other countries, but let's face it -- it's violent, and most of the people who play it weigh a lot more than they should for their height (according to the National Institutes for Health, among others) and short-, mid- and long-term health. That those large people collide with one another creates major problems for them1950 , for their teams and for the league.
So let's circle back to Jason Kelce. There is little doubt that he is a warrior, and there seems to be little doubt that you have to be somewhat crazy to choose a job where you bang into people incessantly over several hours (even if practices are more tame than twenty years ago, there are rules to protect players more, there is concussion protocol, etc.). And then there is longstanding question of assumption of the risk and whether societal rules should protect people from each other (most would agree to that) or themselves (most would disagree, sometimes very strongly, on that). Should society step in or adopt a "survival of the fittest"/"let people do what they want" approach? President Teddy Roosevelt stepped in to reform the rules at the beginning of the 20th Century when young men were dying in games. Threatening legislation, the game reformed itself. I would submit, though, that the pace of reform has been slow and not all that much has changed since 1965 for the long-term health and welfare of the players.
Here are some somewhat random thoughts/factoids. Hall of Famer Ed Reed was quoted as saying that he played the game as a way out of poverty so that his sons would not have to. Go back fifty years, and that's what boxers said. Boxing was one of the five most popular sports fifty years ago -- it is not anymore. Fewer kids are playing the game, although HBO reported, sadly, that poor kids -- many of whom are kids of color, -- are still playing it at the same rate or even a higher rate. That is disturbing, too. That suggest that those who need their football fix -- the collisions, hard tackles -- are content to satisfy their needs with someone else's kids, but not their own. 80% of FBS (Division 1) schools have athletic departments that lose money. Many play to stadiums that are not full. Big-time college football in some parts (on Saturdays) and the NFL have become a big part of our culture. Many revolve their Saturdays and Sundays around football; it has become part of the ritual of tens of millions of people. And American football is an easy game to bet on -- there is a point spread (I confess I still have not figured out the difference between -150 and +430 for baseball games). It is the most popular spectator sport in the country.
But at what cost? To our national psyches, our national soul, our national caring, the quest to provide a good and decent society for all? Yes, there are many more significant problems in the United States and the world to solve for -- aging populations, rising healthcare costs, decaying infrastructure, staggering amounts of student loan debt, the absence of general practice medical doctors, income inequality, climate change among many others. Perhaps this issue even is a high-class problem, given all of the other problems facing us.
But watching people take this type of risk and clobbering each other? Is this a safer form of Christians versus lions or even watching lumberjacks beat the daylights out of each other in an empty box car in the train yard on the far side of down, with people throwing down money betting on who would prevail? Or are we kidding ourselves, and we really have not advance all that much over thousands of years?
Then ask yourself this question -- would you let your kid play this game? And if the answer is no, then why are you watching it? And why do Americans pay so much money to support it?
What does that say about you, us, our society?
Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Mike Trout Gave the Angels a Great Deal
I happened to run into a former Phillie, still involved with the club, recently, and offered that after Bryce Harper set the market with his 13-year $330 million dollar deal that Mike Trout, Philadelphia-area native and one of the top ten position players of all-time, even in his age 27 year, gave the Angels a great deal when he signed for 12 years and $430 million. That Phillie was puzzled, perhaps because of the old sports reporting that seemed to pair Harper and Trout together as equivalents. I offered to this former player, who probably was thinking "who is this nerd and both are getting way too much money at the expense of good positions players like I was," that the career production numbers bore this out.
Let's take a look at career Wins Above Replacement Player --
Mike Trout -- 9 seasons, 66.1
Bryce Harper -- 8 seasons, 27.6.
So even if you extrapolated for Harper and added 3.5 to his WAR to provide a more precise comparison, Harper would be at 31.1 for career WAR, which still would be less than half that of Trout's.
Here is some more perspective:
Trout's career WAR going into this season put him tied with Hall of Famer Goose Goslin for 92nd on the all time-list. It took Goslin 18 seasons -- twice as many -- to achieve the same WAR. The only active players -- all in their twilight -- ahead of Trout are Albert Pujols (39 years old, 19 seasons, 99.9 WAR -- 21st all time), Miguel Cabrera (36 years old, 17 seasons, 69.5 career WAR -- 71st all-time) and Robinson Cano (36 years old, 15 seasons, 69.0 career WAR -- 75th all time). So, it stands to reason that Trout will pass all of them during his career, and Cabrera and Cano pretty soon.
In contrast, Harper's career WAR puts him tied for 607th all-time, with, among others, Clete Boyer, Dave Henderson, Davey Johnson, Tip O'Neill, Randy Winn and last year's NL MVP, Christian Yelich (who has seven seasons under his belt and was 27 going into this season.). Active players ahead of Harper include Kyle Seager (31 years old, 8 seasons, 28.0 WAR), Anthony Rizzo (29 years old, 9 seasons, 29.0 WAR), Hunter Pence (36 years old, 13 seasons, 29.7 WAR), Martin Prado (35 years old, 14 seasons, 29.8 WAR), Elvis Andrus (30 years old, 11 seasons, 30.4 WAR), Howie Kendrick (35 years old, 14 seasons and 30.8 WAR), Jacoby Ellsbury (35 years old, 11 seasons and 31.1 WAR), Brian McCann (35 years old, 15 seasons, 31.6 WAR), Nick Markakis (who has a shot at 3,000 hits) (35 years old, 14 seasons and 32.6 WAR), Nolan Arenado (28 years old, 7 seasons, 32.9 WAR), Adam Jones, (33 years old, 14 seasons, 33.0 WAR), Edwin Encarnacion (36 years old, 15 seasons, 33.1 WAR), Freddie Freeman (29 years old, 10 seasons, 33.6 WAR), Nelson Cruz (38 years old, 15 seasons, 33.8 WAR), Shin-Soo Choo (36 years old, 15 seasons, 33.8 WAR), Andrelton Simmons (29 years old, 8 seasons, 34.5 WAR), Lorenzo Cain (33 years old, 10 seasons, 34.8 WAR), Manny Machado (26 years old, 8 seasons, 34.9 WAR), Justin Upton (31 years old, 12 seasons, 35.1 WAR), Jayson Heyward (29 years old, 10 seasons, 35.6 WAR), Jose Altuve (29 years old, 9 seasons, 35.6 WAR), Mookie Betts (26 years old, 6 seasons, 35.9 WAR), Alex Gordon (35 years old, 13 seasons, 36.3 WAR), Brett Gardner (35 years old, 12 seasons, 37.2 WAR), Russell Martin (36 years old, 14 seasons, 37.5 WAR), Ryan Zimmerman (34 years old, 15 seasons, 37.7 WAR), Hanley Ramirez (35 years old, 15 seasons, 38.0 WAR), Yadier Molina (36 years old, 16 seasons, 38.9 WAR), Josh Donaldson (33 years old, 9 seasons, 39.1 WAR), Giancarlo Stanton (29 years old, 10 seasons, 39.7 WAR), Buster Posey (32 years old, 11 seasons, 41.1 WAR), Paul Goldschmidt (31 years old, 9 seasons, 41.1 WAR), Andrew McCutcheon (32 years old, 11 seasons, 42.9 WAR), Troy Tulowitzki (34 years old, 13 seasons, 44.2 WAR), Ben Zobrist (38 years old, 14 seasons, 45.2 WAR), Ryan Braun (35 years old, 13 seasons, 45.9 WAR), Curtis Granderson (38 years old, 16 seasons, 47.7 WAR), Dustin Pedroia (35 years old, 14 seasons, 51.7 WAR), Evan Longoria (33 years old, 12 seasons, 51.7 WAR), Ian Kinsler (37 years old, 14 seasons, 57.0 WAR), Joey Votto (35 years old, 13 seasons and 58.9 WAR), and then Trout and the three players ahead of him.
Now, the list of players head of Trout has many players ahead of him who are older and played more seasons, and it's not totally fair to have a WAR per season stat because of partial seasons (not fair to count a season with 700 plate appearances the same as one with say 50 when a player was a September call-up as a youngster). Some of these players are there because of longevity, true, and their performance has tailed off and/or they are at the tail end of their careers. That said, performances do level off (ask Andrew Jones about how much fun he had during this past free-agent season), which means there is no guarantee that Harper's current WAR projects to another 3.5 WAR per season over the 13 seasons to give him a career war of over 72 and a perch in the Hall of Fame. But history and the data suggest that Harper may have his struggles come his age 31 or age 32 season. Recent history compels critical thinking along those lines.
But back to the comparison. Trout already is ahead of the following Hall of Famers in career WAR -- Craig Biggio, AndrewDawson, Willie McCovey, Dave Winfield, Richie Ashburn, Billy Williams, Billy Hamilton, Lou Boudreau, Home Run Baker, Jackie Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Zack Wheat, Yogi Berra, Mike Piazza, Vladimir Guerrero, Ichiro (a first-ballot shoo-in), Bill Dickey, Hank Greenberg, Willie Stargell, Luis Aparacio, Bill Terry, Tony Perez, George Sisler, Joe Sewell, Jimmy Collins, Harry Hooper, Joe Tinker, Kirby Puckett and Orlando Cepeda. Harper is behind such non-Hall of Famers as Terry Steinbach, Dennis Menke, Cesar Tovar, Sixto Lezcano, Coco Crisp, Mickey Tettleton, Chris Speier, Darin Erstad, Robby Thompson, Don Money, Mark Belanger, Chuck Knoblauch, Brian Giles and Johnny Damon, among others.
This is not to say that Harper is a bad player. This is not to say that Harper is not a very good player. This also is not to say that Harper has no shot at the Hall of Fame, when, in fact, he has a good shot. This is not to say that Harper is not magnetic, that he did not sell jerseys and jersey shirts and that he did not sell tickets. While his WAR negatively compares to that of Manny Machado, Harper sold about eight times as many tickets upon the announcement of his signing than Machado did in San Diego. But what this comparison does say is how exception a player Mike Trout is. Year after year, he has put up amazing numbers. Harper's numbers do not compare.
You could make the argument that if Harper was worth 13 years at $330 million, Trout was worth not $430 million over 12 seasons, but $609 million over those same 12 years (formula -- $330 million x 2 divided by 13 and then times 12). The Angels got a bargain.
Like Harper.
Love Trout.
Take a look at Baseball Reference or Baseball Prospectus and compare the numbers. They are not that close.
Let's take a look at career Wins Above Replacement Player --
Mike Trout -- 9 seasons, 66.1
Bryce Harper -- 8 seasons, 27.6.
So even if you extrapolated for Harper and added 3.5 to his WAR to provide a more precise comparison, Harper would be at 31.1 for career WAR, which still would be less than half that of Trout's.
Here is some more perspective:
Trout's career WAR going into this season put him tied with Hall of Famer Goose Goslin for 92nd on the all time-list. It took Goslin 18 seasons -- twice as many -- to achieve the same WAR. The only active players -- all in their twilight -- ahead of Trout are Albert Pujols (39 years old, 19 seasons, 99.9 WAR -- 21st all time), Miguel Cabrera (36 years old, 17 seasons, 69.5 career WAR -- 71st all-time) and Robinson Cano (36 years old, 15 seasons, 69.0 career WAR -- 75th all time). So, it stands to reason that Trout will pass all of them during his career, and Cabrera and Cano pretty soon.
In contrast, Harper's career WAR puts him tied for 607th all-time, with, among others, Clete Boyer, Dave Henderson, Davey Johnson, Tip O'Neill, Randy Winn and last year's NL MVP, Christian Yelich (who has seven seasons under his belt and was 27 going into this season.). Active players ahead of Harper include Kyle Seager (31 years old, 8 seasons, 28.0 WAR), Anthony Rizzo (29 years old, 9 seasons, 29.0 WAR), Hunter Pence (36 years old, 13 seasons, 29.7 WAR), Martin Prado (35 years old, 14 seasons, 29.8 WAR), Elvis Andrus (30 years old, 11 seasons, 30.4 WAR), Howie Kendrick (35 years old, 14 seasons and 30.8 WAR), Jacoby Ellsbury (35 years old, 11 seasons and 31.1 WAR), Brian McCann (35 years old, 15 seasons, 31.6 WAR), Nick Markakis (who has a shot at 3,000 hits) (35 years old, 14 seasons and 32.6 WAR), Nolan Arenado (28 years old, 7 seasons, 32.9 WAR), Adam Jones, (33 years old, 14 seasons, 33.0 WAR), Edwin Encarnacion (36 years old, 15 seasons, 33.1 WAR), Freddie Freeman (29 years old, 10 seasons, 33.6 WAR), Nelson Cruz (38 years old, 15 seasons, 33.8 WAR), Shin-Soo Choo (36 years old, 15 seasons, 33.8 WAR), Andrelton Simmons (29 years old, 8 seasons, 34.5 WAR), Lorenzo Cain (33 years old, 10 seasons, 34.8 WAR), Manny Machado (26 years old, 8 seasons, 34.9 WAR), Justin Upton (31 years old, 12 seasons, 35.1 WAR), Jayson Heyward (29 years old, 10 seasons, 35.6 WAR), Jose Altuve (29 years old, 9 seasons, 35.6 WAR), Mookie Betts (26 years old, 6 seasons, 35.9 WAR), Alex Gordon (35 years old, 13 seasons, 36.3 WAR), Brett Gardner (35 years old, 12 seasons, 37.2 WAR), Russell Martin (36 years old, 14 seasons, 37.5 WAR), Ryan Zimmerman (34 years old, 15 seasons, 37.7 WAR), Hanley Ramirez (35 years old, 15 seasons, 38.0 WAR), Yadier Molina (36 years old, 16 seasons, 38.9 WAR), Josh Donaldson (33 years old, 9 seasons, 39.1 WAR), Giancarlo Stanton (29 years old, 10 seasons, 39.7 WAR), Buster Posey (32 years old, 11 seasons, 41.1 WAR), Paul Goldschmidt (31 years old, 9 seasons, 41.1 WAR), Andrew McCutcheon (32 years old, 11 seasons, 42.9 WAR), Troy Tulowitzki (34 years old, 13 seasons, 44.2 WAR), Ben Zobrist (38 years old, 14 seasons, 45.2 WAR), Ryan Braun (35 years old, 13 seasons, 45.9 WAR), Curtis Granderson (38 years old, 16 seasons, 47.7 WAR), Dustin Pedroia (35 years old, 14 seasons, 51.7 WAR), Evan Longoria (33 years old, 12 seasons, 51.7 WAR), Ian Kinsler (37 years old, 14 seasons, 57.0 WAR), Joey Votto (35 years old, 13 seasons and 58.9 WAR), and then Trout and the three players ahead of him.
Now, the list of players head of Trout has many players ahead of him who are older and played more seasons, and it's not totally fair to have a WAR per season stat because of partial seasons (not fair to count a season with 700 plate appearances the same as one with say 50 when a player was a September call-up as a youngster). Some of these players are there because of longevity, true, and their performance has tailed off and/or they are at the tail end of their careers. That said, performances do level off (ask Andrew Jones about how much fun he had during this past free-agent season), which means there is no guarantee that Harper's current WAR projects to another 3.5 WAR per season over the 13 seasons to give him a career war of over 72 and a perch in the Hall of Fame. But history and the data suggest that Harper may have his struggles come his age 31 or age 32 season. Recent history compels critical thinking along those lines.
But back to the comparison. Trout already is ahead of the following Hall of Famers in career WAR -- Craig Biggio, AndrewDawson, Willie McCovey, Dave Winfield, Richie Ashburn, Billy Williams, Billy Hamilton, Lou Boudreau, Home Run Baker, Jackie Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Zack Wheat, Yogi Berra, Mike Piazza, Vladimir Guerrero, Ichiro (a first-ballot shoo-in), Bill Dickey, Hank Greenberg, Willie Stargell, Luis Aparacio, Bill Terry, Tony Perez, George Sisler, Joe Sewell, Jimmy Collins, Harry Hooper, Joe Tinker, Kirby Puckett and Orlando Cepeda. Harper is behind such non-Hall of Famers as Terry Steinbach, Dennis Menke, Cesar Tovar, Sixto Lezcano, Coco Crisp, Mickey Tettleton, Chris Speier, Darin Erstad, Robby Thompson, Don Money, Mark Belanger, Chuck Knoblauch, Brian Giles and Johnny Damon, among others.
This is not to say that Harper is a bad player. This is not to say that Harper is not a very good player. This also is not to say that Harper has no shot at the Hall of Fame, when, in fact, he has a good shot. This is not to say that Harper is not magnetic, that he did not sell jerseys and jersey shirts and that he did not sell tickets. While his WAR negatively compares to that of Manny Machado, Harper sold about eight times as many tickets upon the announcement of his signing than Machado did in San Diego. But what this comparison does say is how exception a player Mike Trout is. Year after year, he has put up amazing numbers. Harper's numbers do not compare.
You could make the argument that if Harper was worth 13 years at $330 million, Trout was worth not $430 million over 12 seasons, but $609 million over those same 12 years (formula -- $330 million x 2 divided by 13 and then times 12). The Angels got a bargain.
Like Harper.
Love Trout.
Take a look at Baseball Reference or Baseball Prospectus and compare the numbers. They are not that close.
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