Sunday, November 13, 2005

SportsProf's Ivy League Hoops Predictions

As most of you know, there isn't a lot of scientific reasoning behind my Ivy League hoops prognostications. I read media websites, I read blogs, I read newspaper articles, I read the Blue Ribbon Guide, I read The Sporting News' guide, I talked to some cognoscenti and here I am. Part of me likes to go on past history, on precedent, and I take a general view that unless presented with some reasonable evidence to the contrary, I will tend to pick last year's champion to repeat. My basic premise is that they're the defending champions, and someone has to take the crown away from them. (Of course, I'm not that daffy, such that if they had five senior starters and graduated all of them, I'd probably pick someone else). There's also one more theory that bears watching. Penn has won eight of the past thirteen Ivy titles, and its coach, Fran Dunphy, is the dean of Ivy coaches. Put another way, it's hard to go against the team that has controlled the conversation in the Ivies for that period of time.

I also think that Fran Dunphy of Penn did his best coaching last year in his 16 years at Penn. Until last year, Dunphy won his titles with an established point guard running his show. Jerome Allen, Michael Jordan and Andrew Toole all fit that bill, and last year Penn ran its offense with three two guards, one small forward and one big forward. Despite that limitation (for Dunphy, historically, at least), Penn dominated the Ivies. Pre-season favorite, Princeton, with two returning first-team all-Ivy players and one of the nation's hot coaches, fell to sixth. It was a great year for the Penn Quakers.

Part of the reason for the Quakers' success, though, is gone. Four year-starter Tim Begley, a two guard/small forward who could run the offense, graduated. Now, most of the time teams like Penn find other Begleys and re-load, but he was a very special player. He could hit the three with consistency, he could pass the ball amazingly well, and he blended in to make his teammates better. I thought he was the best Princeton-type player I'd seen in the Ivies for years, and as Princeton's luck has been of late, he spent his past four seasons playing his home games not at Jadwin Gym, but at the Palestra. One thing I particularly admired about Penn's offense during the Begley years was its crisp passing. Begley always knew where the ball should be going, he didn't hold the ball for too long, and his court IQ seemed to rub off on his teammates. That type of player doesn't come around too often, even at Penn and Princeton.

Most of the time people default to Penn and Princeton or Princeton and Penn, for a few reasons. First, they've dominated the Ivies since the league's inception, and only Yale (tied with Princeton and Penn in 2001), Cornell (1988) and Brown (1986) have won the Ivy men's hoops crown other than Penn and Princeton in the past 35+ years. Second, Penn and Princeton form a formidable tag-team pair. For those of you unfamiliar with the Ivies, they play their league games on back-to-back nights, which means that if you're going to beat Penn and Princeton, you have to beat them on consecutive nights. The Ivies might not be as tough as other leagues, but the back-to-back games can be grueling. In order to challenge the titans, you have to hope your tag-team partner -- your travel pairing -- is formidable enough to give Penn and Princeton fits so that they'll be a little worn out before they play you. That, too, isn't as easy as it sounds.

Can it happen this year? Or will it be Penn and Princeton again?

Here are my picks.

1. Cornell. I thought that last year was a watershed year for Steve Donahue, formerly Fran Dunphy's top assistant, in this fifth year at Cornell. It was time for the Big Red to make a move, and I honestly (and wrongly) thought that his job was in danger if Cornell didn't make it into the top four in the Ivies. Donahue has gotten less hype than other newer Ivy coaches, but he's a good coach who has recruited reasonably well in Ithaca. In frontcourter Ryan Rourke and swingman Lenny Collins, he has about an able a 1-2 punch as any team in the Ivies. The Big Red can shoot and rebound a bit. The big question is their backcourt. It has some health and experience issues, and it's hard to win in any league without solid guard play. If the Big Red can get decent guard play, I think they'll win the Ivies. This, of course, is a stretch prediction, but I think that it's one worth making. The 1-2 punch is an excellent one.

2. Penn. Most of the pundits are picking either Penn or Harvard, and it was hard for me not to give Penn the nod. They are the defending champions, and while they lost three key players from their seven-person rotation (G David Whitehurst didn't figure into the picture until the very end of the season), they do have four back. Besides losing Begley, they lost two frontcourters, 6'10" Jan Fikiel (who relaxes and had his best season last year, even if his overall career was a disappointment) and 6'9" Ryan Pettinella, who was a huge recruit three years ago (and who now is playing community college ball in upstate New York after an aborted transfer to Cincinnati). Pettinella loved to go inside, was good on defense, and without him and Fikiel Penn is thin inside this year.

Penn does have a good nucleus returning. In 6'2" two guard Ibby Jaaber, they have one of the best players in the Ivies. Jaaber is an excellent defender and decent penetrator, but he's an iffy outside shooter. Begley's ability to hit the three consistently emboldened Penn's other players and caused defenses to give other Penn players more room to maneuver. Without both Begley and enough depth inside, teams be able to player close perimeter defense on Penn, and that could make points harder to come by (Danley did keep opponents honest last year, but Penn will need to establish more inside depth to help take the heat off the guards). Probable PG Eric Osmundsen got healthy and out of Dunphy's doghouse last year, and he played with some confidence that was sorely lacking in his earlier seasons at Penn. He's a good outside shooter, but he's not a creating-type of PG. He'll need another offensive threat from the wings to help bring out the best in him. SF Mark Zoller was a surprise rookie star two years ago, when he got off to a great start and faded a bit down the stretch. He had a good year last year, although he played at times with too much emotion and sometimes disappeared, perhaps because Ivy coaches learned that he is a stealthy type of player who you can't leave unguarded anymore. Zoller's a winner, and Dunphy always seems to unearth players like him.

The most improved player for Penn last year was center Steve Danley (as I'll submit that neither Jaaber nor Zoller improved as much as I thought they would have last season). Danley was a stiff offensive player as a freshman who became more fluid last season, and his very consistent play helped lead Penn to the title. Penn has a host of returning bench players, the best of which is Whitehurst, who, along with Zoller and Jaaber, has been nursing an ankle injury. Whitehurst is an outstanding athlete whose game still needs some refining. The Quakes also have five freshmen in what was a highly touted recruiting class (and much more highly touted than the prior year's class). For the Quakers to repeat, they'll need some help from among Gs Aron Cohen and Kevin Egee and forwards Cameron Lewis, Brennan Votel and Tommy McMahon. Lewis is the top recruit.

Top to bottom, Penn has the most talent in the Ivies. Fran Dunphy is a master tinkerer, and he'll relish the challenge of cobbling together enough offense with what should be a pretty stellar defense to win the Ivy title.

3. Harvard. Heresy, you say? Where are your Princeton Tigers, you ask? Read further, and you'll get there. In 7' C Brian Cusworth and 6'8" F Matt Stehle, the Cantabs have the best frontcourt in the Ivies. A good enough frontcourt to have many pundits predict them for second in the Ivies, and perhaps there's a first thrown in here and there. Both are outstanding players, and, as Blue Ribbon is quick to point out, no Ivy coach has won more games over the past ten years (outside of Penn and Princeton) than Frank Sullivan. He's a solid coach; he just doesn't always get enough players. Harvard's backcourt questions going into the season are bigger than Cornell's, and two players doesn't a team make. Opposing defenses will pack it in on Harvard until someone in the backcourt or on the wings can hit the three with consistency. If that can happen, the Crimson might make a serious challenge for the Ivy title. But if you make that bet, get some good odds. Frosh G Andrew Pusar out of the outstanding Seton Hall Prep program in NJ could be the answer Sullivan needs at the guard position.

4. Princeton. Before last season, Tiger fans relished the thought of combining two returning first-team all-Ivy players, 2G Will Venable and C Judson Wallace, with the disciplined approach of Princeton alum and former Air Force coach Joe Scott, who pulled off one of the all-time coaching feats two seasons ago when he led Air Force to an NCAA tournament bid. The problem was, the Tiger insiders were a little worried. Scott coaches an ultra-orthodox version of the Princeton offense, whereas his former teammate and predecessor, John Thompson III, coached a more liberal one. In Venable, he had a somewhat undisciplined 2G who couldn't shoot too well, and in Wallace he had a center who was on okay defender but a mediocre passer (and who also liked to put the ball on the floor too much). Both were suited for the liberal version of the Princeton Offense, but a conversion to orthodoxy in their senior seasons was a bit too much to ask for.

Unable to meld this unit into a punishing defense team, the Tigers (who shot the ball very well), fell to sixth in the Ivies. It was a very frustrating season.

What will happen this year will depend in large part on the performance of returning big man Harrison Schaen and frosh inside players Noah Levine and Michael Stritmatter. Schaen took last year off, and the press has reported that his frosh season was a disappointment, especially for a Top-150 recruit out of a nationally ranked HS program (Mater Dei in Orange County, California). Having watched many of the Tigers' games down the stretch two seasons ago, I thought that Schaen changed the game in a way that numbers always can't reflect. When he was in the game, opponents' offenses frequently wilted. He was a dominating defensive presence who could control the glass, and two years ago Princeton outrebounded its opponents for the first time in memory.

His offense, though, is raw, and it's an open question whether he can grasp the Princeton offense and pass well enough within it. At times he's looked lost in practice, but he also has shown flashes of talent. If he can play well at both ends, look to the Tigers to stalk the other favorites and perhaps run them down. Levine might figure into the rotation; he has a big body (relatively speaking) and is an older frosh after having spent a post-graduate year at The Hill School last year. It also looks like he can hit the open jumper. Still, he's a freshman, and the center position in the Princeton Offense is a tough one to learn.

The starting forwards are the Tigers' strength. One of the team leaders is 6'6" Luke Owings, a wing player who is a very intelligent basketball player and an outstanding shooter. He's asserted himself in practice, and he is primed to have a good year for the Tigers. Princeton's most aggressive player is the other starting forward, 6'5" Noah Savage, a good shooter who can handle the ball reasonably well and who plays tough defense. Savage, though, is foul-prone, and he'll need to stay on the floor more for the Tigers to contend. Alex Okafor, a 6'5" frosh from California, looks very athletic, looks to be a potentially very able defender and might figure into the rotation. 6'6" soph Kyle Koncz also could see some time.

Returning at point guard is the team's captain, 5'9" guard Scott Greenman, a gritty player who's a better shooter than he looks, an able passer and a clutch player. Greenman captained the U.S. team at the Maccabiah Games in Israel this past summer, and Scott's looking to him to show his teammates the way. He's an able guard, but he'll need help, and the 2G position remains a mystery for the Tigers. Among those who will contend for playing time are juniors Max Schafer (who almost didn't make the team this fall, despite having been a first-team all-state player in NJ two years ago out of HS) and Edwin Buffmire, who keeps on hanging in there and looks worthy of more playing time, soph Matt Sargeant (who started a bunch of games last year), and freshmen Geoff Kestler and Jason Briggs. Kestler has been running with the first team in practice, and it looks like he'll start. Schafer has the most athletic body, and Buffmire, when given the chance, has made things happen. Whoever gets the nod will need to establish himself -- and in a hurry.

The Tigers have a bunch of talent on their roster, but the question remains who will step up and help complement Savage, Owings and Greenman. They particularly need help on the inside, and, if they don't get it, they'll be in the first division, but not contending for the title. If Harrison Schaen lives up to his prior billings, it could be an exciting time in the last two weeks of the Ivy season for Tiger fans.

5. Columbia. Joe Jones might have more talent on Morningside Heights than his brother James has in New Haven, and despite suffering some recruting losses he has another good recruiting class (his second). The Lions should benefit from last season's great turnaround (from the year before), and Columbia should build upon last year's success.

6. Yale. This is James Jones' seventh year at Yale, and the rhetoric about how good Yale is and how they're primed to challenge Penn and Princeton year-in and year-out has dimmed significantly from what it was four years ago, when the Bulldogs won 21 games and tied Princeton and Penn for the Ivy title. While Yale has won in double digits the past three years, they've not contended, and they've had some decent talent, albeit talent that didn't fulfill its potential the way Coach Jones thought it would have. Jones substitutes a lot, prides himself on having well-conditioned teams, and, I think, coaches on emotion a bit too much. That formula worked in the short-term when he first arrived in New Haven, but it hasn't worked well as of late. In C Dominick Martin and Fs Sam Kaplan (now healthy) and Casey Hughes, Jones might have one of the best frontcourts in the Ivies, and his guards aren't half-bad either. It could be that this team is the surprise of the Ivies, or it could well be that Yale plays this year the way it has played the past 3 seasons and finishes in the middle of the pack if not the second division. Part of it is that Yale isn't that deep, and part of it is that I think other Ivy coaches have figured out how to play Yale.

7. Brown. Last year Brown had returning first-team all-Ivy player PG Jason Forte, SG Luke Ruscoe and a few other players who were perimeter players who could shoot and who could play hard, but Brown had to rely upon a lot of freshmen and never developed any chemistry. Now Forte is gone. Ruscoe and G Damon Huffman, among others, return, and there is a promising recruiting class. Still, Brown has to establish its froncourt players, and while Miller has worked magic before, he'll be rebuilding at least this season. Look for Brown to improve, as the league is better top to bottom this year, but it's still a rebuilding year for the Bruins.

8. Dartmouth. I actually don't think that Brown and Dartmouth are traditional Ivy doormats. I think both will give teams fits. Dartmouth made some good strides last year and has some good players, but Coach Terry Dunn only has been there a year and needs more time to get his type of players. G Mike Lang and swingman Jonathan Ball are the best returning players, while frosh G Marlon Saunders has received some significant advanced hype. If Dunn can develop a few more players, the Big Green might be able to climb out of the cellar.

Predictions for first-team all-Ivy

Ryan Rourke, Cornell (Player of the Year)
Ibby Jaaber, Penn
Matt Stehle, Harvard
Noah Savage, Princeton
Lenny Collins, Cornell.

Those are my thoughts, and, as always, all typographical errors are mine.

Homecoming: A Second Look

While I am supportive of my alma mater, I actually didn't take yesteday's loss that hard. As many who attend homecoming, who you visit with and see at the game is more important than what the team actually does on the field. At many universities, the party-like atmosphere is so compelling that many homecoming attendees don't actually make it to the game until the second half. We did make it to the game for the opening kickoff, but I honestly can say that the company we kept transcended the gridiron activity and made the day an outstanding one. Nothing -- from a 63-0 Princeton victory to a 58-7 defeat -- would have darkened this gorgeous fall day in Central New Jersey.

The reason is simple -- who you hang out with at homecoming and what you do. My family and I got to Jadwin Gym on the Princeton campus a few hours before game time. My kids played soccer behind some dividers with the children of some classmates, and by the pink-ish looks on their cheeks it looked like they had a great time. The reason that we were inside Jadwin was because that's where many classes have their pre-game tailgate parties. In mid-November, inside parties are a safe bet, because the weather could be cold or rainy or both, and having stood outside in less than optimal conditions in the past it's more fun to be inside, even in a cavernous gym that had women's and men's hoops practices going on at that time.

Friends came from all over the east -- Boston, Connecticut, Albany, Westchester County (NY), Northern NJ, Central NJ, suburban Philadelphia, Baltimore and parts midwest and west, and we spent a lot of time catching up. We occupied about four rows of bleacher seats on the home side, watched our children (ranging in age from 5 to 17) interact and talk about the things that interest them. The sun shone brightly for a short while, but, as it can inevitably do on the home side of the field, it went in early enough to compel the fans to put on sweaters or sweatshirts, but, absent any wind, it was still a great day weatherwise. (That the visiting fans sit in the sun happens, according to conventional wisdom, because it isn't so pleasant to sit with the sun hitting you right in the eyes, so the home fans would rather not have to get blinded by it even if they have to endure chillier temperatures). On this particular day, there was even more orange than blue on the visitors' side.

My friends and their kids shopped at the University Store before the game, and both kids and adults donned the latest in Princeton wear. We ate hot dogs, soft pretzels and popcorn, as well as cotton candy. We wore reasonable amounts of orange and black, enough to support the home eleven without reincarnating Halloween. The kids were particularly well turned out.

Lots of lengthy conversations took place about life, and we did watch a football game at the same time. We tried to call plays, analyze penalties, and explain the nuances of the Wing-T offense to the kids (without mentioning Tubby Raymond and the Delaware Blue Hens), and we wondered aloud whether the home team would stop turning the ball over enough to win the game (they didn't and they didn't). Were we undergrads, this loss would have sat as badly with us as a meal of meat of unknown origin from the dining hall known as Commons. As alums with lives that range far beyond Princeton Stadium, we shrugged off the loss with an attitude of "well, it would have been nice to win, but we didn't." In our day, a few of our crowd played football until either injuries or getting stuck at fifth on the depth chart convinced them that their time would be better spent on other endeavors, but there really isn't a rabid football alum among us. I'm sure that among groups with staunch football alums, such as Maryland Governor Robert Ehrlich (Princeton Class of 1979), the feelings were much different. Some former gridders we ran into after the game wondered aloud as to why the playcalling was so conservative. My view was at least the playcalling had some method to it; when we were undergraduates, the coaching was so bad that its method was undiscernable to everyone but a math major with an undiagnosed case of ADD and an alcohol problem.

After the game we repaired (that's kind of an Ivy League word, isn't it?) to our old eating club on Prospect Avenue, where we ran into grads of all generations eating and drinking and just catching up. There wasn't much talk of the game, it was rather crowded, my daughter almost had the chance to shake hands with a U.S. Senator and I explained to her a few fine points about 8-ball. Both kids thought the place was cool, we hung out with our friends a bit more, and then it was time to gather for dinner.

Dinner really proved how special the gathering was. There were about forty of us at a restaurant in Princeton, in a private room, with one table for the kids and one table for the adults. My kids didn't know some of the other kids who were there as well as they knew one another, but it didn't matter at all. They blended in very easily, and while the adults sipped draught beer at their table, the kids sampled root beer and Shirley Temples at theirs. Football didn't come into the conversation that much, as the talk turned to the professional teams in our hometowns, schools, summer activities and the type of things you talk about when you take time out from your busy lives to share them with those with whom you go back almost three decades.

There were several toasts, including a champagne toast with the bubbly courtesy of a buddy who couldn't make it in from Norhern California (he had teed up the restaurant beforehand to fete us in his absence -- a very nice gesture indeed). People do look a little different more than two decades since graduation, but the core attitudes and values are there, and they remain strong and vibrant. These get togethers just help solidify them even further.

Even if the football team were to go 0-10 every year.

The kids finished before the adults, and they went outside on the pavement outside the restaurant and hung out. We could watch them through the window, and then I and a classmate, the father of the only other five year-old who was there, stepped outside to make sure the youngest boys didn't end up playing in traffic. My son then told the other five-year old boy, who lives outside Boston, about his birthday party that's upcoming in about a month. He invited him, and I offered that we couldn't expect him to come because he lives hundreds of miles away and his family is very busy. I then looked at my son and said, "It's really too long a drive."

Whereupon, my friend's five year-old, a budding Theo Epstein, said, "I can fly."

That was among many lines of the night.

After dinner, we went to a combination candy store/ice cream shop to sate everyone's sweet tooth. The ten- and eleven year-old boys were allotted a certain fraction of a pound to pick candy, and, as you could guess, they opted for the biggest jawbreakers that they could find. Some of the smaller kids opted for ice cream, and we windshopped the candy as we talked about how much fun a night we had and when we were going to get together in the future. The kids were making plans of their own, too.

As with many great experiences, it was the company that mattered.

Because, in the end, it's not so much about who won or lost or even how they played the game. Or even about how the weather was. It's about the game as the magnet for a brisk type of renewal that gives us something special to fortify our lives for a while.

That's what homecoming is all about.

Homecoming: A First Look

TigerHawk spells out the sentiments of many Princeton alums resulting from yesterday's stunning 21-14 defeat at the hands of the Yale Bulldogs.

Going into the game, the Tigers were 4-1 in the Ivies and tied with Brown for the Ivy lead. Win out, and you guarantee yourselves no worse than a share of the Ivy title -- your first title in ten years. (Beat Yale, and you also guarantee yourself the "Big Three" championship, because you beat Harvard earlier in the season, and that doesn't stand for much except you get to host a pretty cool bonfire behind Nassau Hall that doesn't happen that often). Brown shellacked Yale last week, 38-21, but Tiger fans didn't delude themselves that yesterday's game wasn't going to be a difficult one. The rivalry dates back a long way, and Yale has a good team this year (you may recall that it was Princeton that was picked to finish sixth in the Ivies, with Yale in the first division).

Except a funny thing happened on the way to the tough game. Princeton looked very fluid on offense in the first half, got up 14-0 and was driving for a TD in the waning moments of the first half. Things looked very promising for the Tigers, until Yale intercepted the ball near its own goal line with less than a few minutes to go. Yale went on a drive of its own, but it didn't result in a score. So, at the half, it was 14-0 Tigers.

Tiger fans were buoyed because reports filtered in that doormat Dartmouth was giving Brown fits and even leading at one point (as it turned out, Brown won by 10), so, along with the great weather, the Tigers were perhaps going to slip into first place in the Ivies all by themselves. That's a pretty neat trick in an evenly matched league.

But alas it was not meant to be. The Tigers turned the ball over 7 times for the day, were very conservative on offense in the second half, couldn't stop Yale's passing game on defense, and two late turnovers led to two Yale scores in the final minutes, giving the Bulldogs a hard-fought 21-14 victory. The links will give you more details than I provide here, but suffice it to say that the amazing aspect of the Tigers' day was that they turned the ball over so many times and still almost won the game. If you turn the ball over 7 times, normally you'll lose by three touchdowns. Make no mistake about it -- Yale deserved to win this football game.

Yale coach Jack Siedliecki gets a ton of credit for innovating at halftime and for fielding a team that didn't give up. As TigerHawk points out, the thin ice that Princeton head coach seemingly was on at the season's outset looks like it has returned. Hughes, a very nice man, looked like he extended his Tiger career with wins at Harvard and Penn in the past several weeks. Yesterday's defeat might only rekindle some anti-Hughes sentiment that had been percolating beneath the surface after last season. The metrics for head coaches are easy for all to see -- you get paid to win games and you keep your job by winning more than you lose. During Hughes' tenure, the Tigers have not done what TigerHawk had outlined -- basically contending every now and then for a title, finishing in the top half of the league more often than not, beating Yale with some frequency and winning a title once in a while. As a result, it would appear that Princeton AD Gary Walters will have a tough decision to make after the season.

For diehard Tiger fans, yesterday's defeat at Homecoming at the hands of an old rival on a day where they had Yale almost in full retreat and then played very poorly left all Tiger fans with a bad taste in their mouth. Princeton was outcoached, outplayed and outtoughed. Again.

I don't share TigerHawk's views about writing the Princeton president or Princeton AD, because I'm less of a zealot about Tiger football than he is. And, because it's the Ivy League, unless a coach has brought ignominy to the university through awful behavior, I'm not that eager to pull the trigger on a coaching career. That said, those who are in the position of making these choices have a much tougher one to make than they thought they did only a week ago.

Friday, November 11, 2005

Penn Lands Big Recruit -- Just Ask His Prep School Coach

Read all about it here.

He's a guard named Darren Smith who played at South Plainfield HS in NJ, and he's now at the Peddie School, a fine private/boarding school in Central NJ that hit the map within the past ten years because billionaire, former Ambassador to England and friend of Ronald Reagan Walter Annenberg gave them $100 million. According to his coach, Chris Potash, Smith is the top recruit in the Ivy League.

How many times have you heard that before? On the one hand, Penn's junior guard, Ibby Jaaber, is one of the top players in the Ivies and did a year of post-graduate work at Peddie before going to Penn, so you might figure that there's something in Peddie's water that helps them turn out Ivy-caliber players for top Ivy teams. On the other hand, I ask readers out there to post comments about what they've heard about Smith. If you're a Penn fan, what have you heard other than the usual "he must be the next best thing since Michael Jordan (the former Penn PG, not the Bulls mega-star)"? If you're a Princeton fan, have you heard that Princeton coaches are gasping because Smith is another Jordan or Jaaber? (You'll recall that the Phillips Exeter coach of Penn frosh Cameron Lewis remarked that if the 6'8" Lewis "had a jump shot, he'd be going to Stanford." If many mid-to-low DI players had a consistent jump shot, they'd probably be playing at high-DI schools too). Enough with the hype.

Congratulations to Peddie coach Chris Potash for turning out another Ivy-caliber player. Congratulations to Darren Smith for making an excellent choice of schools. It's hard to argue with those statements (unless you're a partisan fan of another Ivy school who is upset that Smith didn't go to your school, but understand that his final choice was between Penn and Iona, not Penn and another Ivy).

What is easier to argue with is whether Smith is the top recruit and whether he'll project out to be the Ivy Rookie of the Year next year, when Jaaber is a senior and presumably will contend, as his prep school coach hopes, for Ivy Player of the Year honors. As with any major college program, you never know how it will turn out.

But no other Ivy, especially this year, is willing to concede anything to any other school. If you're the Ivies top recruit, they'll come at you even harder.

To prove, if anything, that you shouldn't have been.

And Now For Some Lighter Fare

Amidst all the data that I have been analyzing and collecting lately, I do find time to read other blogs. I found this at rammerjammeryellowhammer, an excellent blog on, among other things, college football. The post that I linked to (which may be NSFW -- not safe for work for those of you who are not cognoscenti in the abbreviations that we bloggers use) is about the Green Bay Packers, and a particularly creative use of the Cheesehead technology.

As well as the results for someone who embraced it.

Enjoy.

Wonderlic Update after 9 Weeks

You may recall this post, where I stacked up the one half of the NFL teams with the highest Wonderlic scores against the other half with the lowest. The first question I asked was for you to guess which group had the higher scores and which had the lower:

Group A

Detroit Lions
Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers
Atlanta Falcons
Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Houston Texans
New Orleans Saints
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals
Washington Redskins
Kansas City Chiefs
Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay Packers

Group B

St. Louis Rams
Oakland Raiders
Tennessee Titans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Diego Chargers
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers
San Francisco 49ers
New York Jets
Cleveland Browns
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
Minnesota Vikings
Seattle Seahawks.

Okay, it's the latter (if you put the list of Group A beneath the list of Group B, you'll have the entire order of finish -- St. Louis did the best, while Green Bay did the worst). Now, let's look at the combined records to date (at the midway point of the season) for both groups:

Group A: 60-70
Group B: 70-60.

Surprise, Surprise. Sometimes in football, doing means more than thinking. In case you were wondering, St. Louis, which tested the highest, is 4-4, second-highest Oakland is 3-5, while Tennessee, which tested third-highest, is 2-7. Green Bay, which tested the worst, is 1-7, while Arizona, second-to-last, is 2-6. Third-to-last Kansas City is 5-3, fourth-to-last (on Wonderlic, is case you were Wonderlic-ing) Washington is 5-3, and fifth-to-last Cincinnati is 7-2.

Go figure. By the way, Indianapolis, which is 8-0, finished 22nd on the Wonderlic, which just goes to show you a) the standings matter more and b) it perhaps is more important how your front-office folks and quarterbacks do on the test than the rest of the guys on the field.

Finally, let's examine how they did in head-to-head matchups, where a Group A team played a Group B team. Again, Group B prevails, 41-31, which means that the teams with the lower Wonderlic scores prevailed again.

I am sure the Wonderlic folks can come up with reasons as to how I am misapplying their data, but on the face of it, at least this year, as to overall team performance, the Wonderlic test doesn't seem to make a difference.

As with many things, what you do with your talent and how hard you work is critical to your own and your team's success.

Thursday, November 10, 2005

Dick Vermeil's Last-Second Play Call

I loved Dick Vermeil's call on the last play in regulation at home against the Raiders on Sunday. Down 23-20 with one second to go, the Chiefs' mentor called a handoff to Larry Johnson, who leaped over the line and into the end zone for the game-winning score (they kicked the extra point because, unlike in overtime, NFL rules require that the PAT be attempted). Great, gutsy call.

I had two thoughts about the call. The first involved the odds of being right, and The Sports Economist has a good post on the topic here. There's game theory involved, of course, and I for one wondered how many coaches would have taken the plunge and how many would have settled for the field goal and taken their chances on overtime. My guess is more would have done the latter than the former, but read the whole post and determine how you would come out. I recall a quote from a famous coach about going for a first down on a fourth and one early in the game when the ball was at midfield. The quote was something like, "If we can't get that yard, we have serious problems." In other words, the odds were that his team was more likely to make it than not.

Vermeil had to have believed that if his offensive line couldn't make their blocks in this type of pressure, well, what were the odds that they'd make the playoffs or do well in them anyway. Now, the Chiefs can use this result to fortify their courage, that when faced with the abyss, they know how to conquer it. That play call could play huge dividends for Kansas City in the last half of the NFL season.

Here's the other thought -- did the age of the coach matter in making the call? Vermeil has been to a few Super Bowls, won one of them, and he's a grandfather and about 70 years old or so (we should all look as good as he does at that age). He doesn't have much left to prove, and, if they fire him, he's had a great career, could make the Hall of Fame, and he really wouldn't have damaged his career (not that one play call would cause him to get fired, at least not this one). But would a younger coach, one on the way up in his career, made the same call?

I am not so sure. On the one hand, if the team scored a touchdown, he would be heralded as a brave coach, an excellent leader, and someone who is decisive about his team's abilities -- with a great future. On the other hand, if the team failed to score, he could be excoriated as a dopey lummox who flaunted the odds and should have taken the sure thing. We've heard these comments time and time again, and I'm reminded a quote that a friend of my father's, an Air Force veteran, once said: "There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there is no such thing as an old, bold pilot."

Which means, perhaps, that Vermeil's decision was a very sound one. Or it means that we're not defining boldness the way we used to. My view is that a coach less secure in his job and less sure of his own decisionmaking probably would have kicked the field goal. That's not necessarily the coach who will get your team to the playoffs, though. In contrast, a coach of Vermeil's stature had absolutely nothing to lose. A coaching statesman, if his team scores a touchdown, people marvel at his courage. If his team failed, they would have said, "you have to give Vermeil credit for having guts."

I'm glad that the Chiefs went for it and applaud teams who have enough confidence in short-yardage situations to end their games once and for all. There's no guarantee that if you kick the field goal, get the tie and go into overtime that you'll win the toss or convert on your first possession. The Chiefs had their destiny in that game right before them, ripe for the taking, and they went out and seized the day.

That's what winning teams do.

Old coach or young coach.

And the odds seem to be pretty good, to boot.

Err, to touchdown.

Eagles' Talk Radio Jinx Strikes Again

When will Eagles' players learn?

You may recall this post about how Eagles' players either become former Eagles' players or get hurt (and thereby become potentially former Eagles' players) once they become radio show hosts in Philadelphia.

Read the post about the past, as it's a pretty compelling story. And now read further about the four guys who were on the radio in various capacities this year.

First, there's DT Sam Rayburn, who has played the full year after being iffy in training camp because of what I believe was a shoulder injury. Eight games down, and Sam's still chugging away. But after Sam, it gets bad.

There's Terrell Owens, who appeared not on a Philadelphia station but with Miami columnist Dan Le Batard on ESPN Radio on his own show. Case you missed it, T.O. recently said a few things to an ESPN stringer that weren't that nice about his teammate, Donovan McNabb (with whom he hung out on Halloween), and now T.O. is in a T.O. and his career in Philadelphia has suffered a TKO. Which means that T.O. is SOL in PHL.

Then there's LB Jason Short, an aggressive special teams player who was on the same radio show with Rayburn. He broke his leg last week and is out for the season.

Finally, there's C Hank Fraley, the baby-faced Robert Morris alum who was hosting the show that ostensibly former Eagles' FB Jon Ritchie hosted last year. Fraley banged up his shoulder pretty good, had surgery yesterday, and is now out for the year.

There are a few conclusions to draw from this:

1. If I am Sam Rayburn, I am very careful the rest of the year.

2. If I am any other Eagle, I decline any entreaty to have a local radio program, at least if I want a future in the NFL. If you want a future in the Philadelphia media, then perhaps you might consider a gig, especially if you're near the end of your career. Otherwise, head the other way when your agent comes to see if you're interested.

3. I encourage acquaintances on NFC East teams in D.C., New York and Dallas to go on the radio as much as possible.

More on DI Assistant Hoops Coaches

I posted this yesterday on the alma maters of DI men's hoops assistant coaches and this about the alma maters of DI men's hoops head coaches. Here are a few questions for you:

1. What's the inspiration behind Illinois State's and UNC-Wilmington's having 7 alums as assistants in the DI ranks? It's not like they're even the best hoops schools in their states. Is it coincidence, or are their good mentors at those schools who have inspired kids to become coaches?

2. Ditto Stetson, which has 6 alums as DI assistants? Great nickname, the Stetson Hatters have, but when's the last time they did any damage in the post-season? When was the last time they got there? You could argue that the Hatters aren't even among the top 5 DI college teams in their state.

3. Morehead St. and Roanoke both have 5 alums who are DI assistants. Last time I checked, no one was confusing the former with Kentucky or the latter with Virginia in terms of hoops traditions, at least at the national level. The same question applies to all the schools that I have mentioned -- what gives?

4. Peeling back the onion even further, look at some of the schools who have 4 alums as DI assistants -- Bentley, Hamilton, Ithaca, Randolph-Macon and Wooster? Are those outstanding sub-DI hoops programs?

The previous posts give you a lot to digest and think about. I reiterate my view that if you want to be a DI assistant, you have to be determined and simply get started somewhere. If someone who didn't play organized ball -- Lawrence Frank -- can become an NBA head coach, then someone who is the manager for a DIII school but who loves the game, studies it and has the ability to teach and to sell the school's program to a HS kid -- can make it not only as a DI assistant, but also as a DI head coach. You do need good teachers and mentors, but a lot of it is up to you.

And you certainly don't have to be an alum of Duke, Kentucky or Indiana to get what that desired first position.

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

Looking Forward to Beijing in 2008?

When I was a kid, a certain joke permeated when someone slipped and fell. A comment naturally ensued that "And the East German judge gave it a 5" (or some other very low grade when compared to what the rest of the judges gave in diving competitions). Now, East Germany doesn't exist today, but the former country (also known as the German Democratic Republic -- it was anything but) was ruthless in its competition for gold medals (and rumors abounded about sex change operations for some "female" weight throwers and steroid usage for all sorts of athletes). Cheaters, they were.

To make matters worse, before the Iron Curtain fell, the politics were severe. Judges from Eastern Bloc countries voted together, or so it seemed, for athletes from those countries in sports that were judged. And then there was the debacle that was the final men's basketball game in the 1972 Olympics, where the officials robbed the U.S. National Team of a gold medal. Those were bad Olympic times, because bad politics permeated the games.

Cheating participants, crooked judges.

If it was Al Capone's Chicago or Don Corleone's New York, it was one thing. But this is something more sacred -- the Olympic Games.

You might have figured that the fall of the old Soviet Union and the Iron Curtain would have changed all that. East Germany is no longer, and the Soviet Union is extinct. Democratic governments abound, and it doesn't matter if you have a Czech judge or a Slovakian judge (unless, of course, you're an ice skating judge and favor the French pairs or you're a boxing judge watching Roy Jones, Jr.'s match). Or so you would think.

It's no surprise that the Chinese are primed to put on a good show in Beijing in 2008. What is something of a surprise is this report from the "Now That's Amateur Website", regarding a dress rehearsal for the Beijing Games.

Where, it turns out, there are games within games. Or, put another way, the proverbial they are still playing the same old games.

The People's Republic of China has a great opportunity to stage the all-time coming out party in its own front yard in 2008. It has the chance to show the world that it can hold a grand, classy event that could set the standard for Olympics for years to come.

But only if they're careful and do things the right way.

Which isn't the old way.

Stage a farce, and you'll become a joke.

Stage a masterpiece, and you'll become the gold standard.

Some Demographics on Assistant Coaches in DI Hoops

There are 327 DI hoops schools and 918 assistants (according to this year's Blue Ribbon guide). I broke down the distribution of years graduated and alma maters (there were certain cases where assistants were named without alma mater, graduation year, or both). Here goes:

1. Assistant coaching is a young man's game. Of the 918 DI assistants, 614 of them graduated from college in 1990 or after. The oldest assistant graduated in 1961, and there are four assistants who graduated in 2005. 159 assistants graduated in 2000 or after. In short, roughly 2/3 of all assistants are 37 or younger (assuming that the average 1990 graduate was 22 at graduation).

Here's the decade-by-decade breakdown:

1960's -- 12.
1970's -- 70.
1980's -- 215.
1990's -- 455.
2000's -- 159.
No year listed -- 7.

The reasons for this are simple: it's a grueling business, the meritocracy is severe (you're out of a job if you have a few bad seasons in a row, and it's not always that easy to hook up with a new one), the pay at the lower levels isn't always great, and you can burn out. On the flip side, there are hundreds of young men who would just love to get the opportunity to get one of these jobs, but still, it's an easier job to do when you're 25 and unmarried than when you're 42 with a family. How much can you really be on the road before it takes its toll on your family life? How often can you move your family? How much recruiting can you tolerate? How hard is it making a living selling to eighteen year-olds (that is, selling your school). The demographics make sense for another reason -- entry-level assistants cost much less to hire than fifteen-year veterans, so for many DI schools it make sense to hire at least one assistant who is in his first DI coaching job.

At some point, many assistants decide that they don't want to be career DI assistants, that there's no life in being an assistant after a certain age, that the pressures of DII or DIII or the NAIA are easier and the chance for a longer tenure is better (and the chances of getting a head coaching job at those levels could well be easier), that they're not going to get the shot they want and decide to go to the prep ranks or they leave the business altogether. Whatever the reason, 40 seems to be about the magic number. Of the 215 assistants who graduated in the 1980's, 70 of them graduated in 1988 and 1999 and are not yet 40. There is a significant dropoff in the number of assistants who graduated prior to 1988. My guess is that many of these assistants use 40 as a benchmark as where they want to be in life. At some point, it is time to settle down.

3. Alma maters. These 918 assistants went to 506 different schools. 587 went to DI schools and 334 did not (you'll recall that we didn't have good data for 7 assistants). The following is a list of the schools with more than one DI assistant among their alumni:

Ten assistants

Indiana

Seven assistants

Duke
Illinois State
Kentucky
North Carolina-Wilmington

Six assistants

Michigan
Ohio
St. Joseph's (PA)
Stetson

Five assistants

Auburn
Boston College
Florida
Fordham
Morehead St.
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Princeton
Roanoke
Syracuse
Tulane
Villanova
Virginia
Washington

Four assistants

Alabama Birmingham
Austin Peay
Bentley
Campbell
Central Washington
Charlotte
Davidson
Dayton
Eastern Illinois
Eastern Kentucky
Furman
Hamilton
Iona
Iowa
Ithaca
Kansas
Maryland
Mississippi
Mississippi St.
Northern Illinois
Oregon State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Radford
Randloph-Macon
Texas
UCLA
UNLV
Western Kentucky
Wooster

Three assistants

Alabama
Arizona
Arizona State
Ashland
Boston University
Bradley
Buffalo
Butler
California
Cal State-Northridge
Canisius
Central Connecticut
Central Michigan
Charleston
Clemson
Detroit
Evansville
Georgia Tech
Hampden-Sydney
Illinois
Iowa State
Kansas State
Lehigh
Louisiana Tech
Louisville
Loyola Marymount
Marshall
Massachusetts
Memphis
Miami (FL)
Michigan State
Minnesota
Montana
Montana St.
New Hampshire
Niagara
North Carolina St.
Northeastern
Old Dominion
Oklahoma State
Pacific
Richmond
St. Bonaventure
Southern Illinois
Springfield
Taylor
Texas-Arlington
Toledo
Tulsa
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Wisconsin
Xavier
Wayne St.
Wichita St.

Two assistants

Adelphia
Albany
Appalachian State
Arkansas
Asuza Pacific
Belhaven
Bowie State
Bowling Green
Brockport State
Bucknell
Buena Vista Collegel
Buffalo State
BYU
Cheyney State
Christian Brothers
Colorado
Columbia
Concordia
Coppin State
Cumberland
Delaware
Drake
Drexel
Eastern Michigan
Eastern Washington
Eckerd
Fairleigh Dickinson
Florida State
Franklin & Marshall
George Washington
Georgia
Grambling State
Harding
Holy Cross
Howard
Idaho
Indiana (PA)
Jackson State
Kent State
Lamar
Lipscomb
Luther
Livingstone
Louisiana Monroe
Marist
Marquette
Mars Hill
Merrimack
Miami (OH)
Missouri-Rolla
Monmouth
Montclair St.
Montevallo
Mount St. Mary's
New Mexico
New Orleans
Northeastern State
Northern Iowa
North Texas
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma Baptist
Pepperdine
Pikeville
Pittsburgh-Johnstown
Purdue
Rhode island
Rutgers
St. Mary's (CA)
St. Michael's
Salisbury State
San Diego
San Francisco State
Santa Clara
Shippensburg
South Carolina St.
South Dakota St.
Southern Utah
S.W. Texas St.
Spring Harbor
Stanford
SUNY-Geneseo
Tarleton St.
Temple
TCU
Texas Lutheran
Texas-Pan American
Texas-San Antonio
Towson
Troy St.
Tufts
UC-Davis
UC-Santa Barbara
Valparaiso
Vanderbilt
VCU
VMI
Virginia Wesleyan
Wake Forest
Washington & Lee
Western Illinois
William Jewell
Wisconsin-Whitewater.

Whoever said "It's the journey" got it right. After all, you can look at those lists and find the bellwethers, the legendary programs, many of which have spawned a whole bunch of assistants. Of the Top 15 programs in all-time wins, here's a breakdown of how many assistants they have spawned:

Kentucky (7)
North Carolina (5)
Kansas (4)
Duke (7)
St. John's (0 -- no head coaches, either)
Syracuse (5)
Temple (2)
Pennsylvania (5)
Indiana (10)
Notre Dame (2)
Utah (0 -- no head coaches, either)
UCLA (4)
Oregon State (4)
Princeton (5)
Illinois (3).

That's a great showing for those schools -- 63 assistant coaches in all. Each of those schools has won at least 1,000 games in its hoops history.

Now look at these schools:

Illinois State (7)
North Carolina-Wilmington (7)
Michigan (6)
Ohio (6)
St. Joe's (6)
Stetson (6)
Auburn (5)
Boston College (5)
Florida (5)
Fordham (5)
Morehead St. (5)
Tulane (5)
Villanova (5)
Virginia (5)
Washington (5).

Those 15 schools have spawned 83 assistants. No, they're not the next 15 in career wins, but it goes to show you that there is a group of 15 schools outside the top 15 in career wins that, when combined, has spawned many more assistants than the schools that populate the Top 15 list in career wins. Then again, that group is hard to find. The storied programs do more than their fair share of enhancing the legacy of their programs and the sport.

You might have a better chance of getting an assistant's job at a DI school if you went to Indiana or Kentucky, but you also have a shot if you went to one of these schools: Armstrong Atlantic St., Arkansas-Pine Bluff, American International, August, Alfred, Albertson, Alma, Allen, Aurora, Alabama A&M, Barat, Bridgeport, Brandeis, Bridgewater, BYU-Hawaii, Bethany, Bloomsburg, Cal St.-Stanislaus, Campbellsville, Cal St.-Hayward, Clark, Cornell, Clark Atlanta, Carroll, California Baptist, Cal St. - Chico, Cal St. - L.A., University of Chicago, Central Arkansas, Central Oklahoma, Clarion St., Columbus St., California Lutheran, Christian Heritage, Chapman, Colorado College, Denison, Doane, DePauw, Dickinson, Drury, Dominican, Eastern Nazarene, Eastern Oregon, East Connecticut St., Elizabethtown, Emory & Henry, Ferrum, Fayetteville St., Farmingham St., Fort Lewis St., Geneva, Gettysburg, Georgia College, Grand View, George Fox, Grand Valley St., Graceland, Goucher, Harding, Haverford, Hannibal-Grange, Howard Payne, Hobart, Heidelberg, Harris-Stowe, Illinois Wesleyan, Indianapolis, Johnson C. Smith, John Jay, Jersey City State, John Brown, Kutztown, Kings, Kenyon, Kansas Wesleyan, Lewis & Clark St., Lenoir-Rhyne, Lynn, Lubbock Christian, Lane, Lehman, Loras, Lynchburg, Mary Hardin-Baylor, McPherson, Mount St. Joseph's, Maine-Farmington, Methodist, Morehouse, Manhattanville, Maryland St., Milligan, Montana Tech, Mesa St., Muskingum, Mount Union, Manchester, Malone, Moravian, Mississippi College, N.W. Oklahoma St., Nebraska-Omaha, NYU, North Greenville, Northern Alabama, New England, Nebraska Wesleyan, North Dakota St., Northern Montana, Ouchita Baptist, Otterbein, Pfeiffer, Paul Quinn, Palm Beach Atlantic, Phoenix, Point Loma Nazarene, Penn State-Behrend, Paine, Queens, Redlands, S.E. Missouri St., Salem, St. Edwards, Stonehill, St. Rose, Southern Connecticut, SUNO, St. Joe's (Maine), South Dakota, St. Norbert, Southern Nazarene, St. Thomas Aquinas, Sterling, SUNY Oneonta, Siena Heights, St. Thomas, St. Leo, Scranton, St. Ambrose, Simpson, St. Vincent, Southern Maine, Southern Indiana, Stillman, Southern Arkansas, Cal St. - Sacramento, Southampton, St. Mary (Texas), South Carolina-Spartanburg, Tennessee Wesleyan, Talladega, Texas Wesleyan, Texas St., Tiffin, Tabor, Tusculum, Tuskegee, Union, Ursinus, Virginia St., West Texas A&M, Wisconsin La-Crosse, Whitman, Williams, Wisconsin-Platteville, Western Connecticut, Winona St., Winston-Salem, Wittenberg, Western Maryland, Wisconsin Lutheran, West Georgia, Wingate, Willamette, Western New Mexico, William Penn, Wilkes, Westfield St., Wisconsin-Oshkosh, Wisconsin-Parkside, West Florida and York. All of those schools spawned one current DI assistant coach. My guess is that you haven't heard of most of them.

If you're a young man looking for his first entry into the DI coaching ranks, my advice is to persevere. There's no tried and true prescription for success in these ranks, but a saying of Mark Twain comes to mind: "95% of life is all about showing up." So, show up at the camps, at the clinics, get to know the big names, network, keep showing up, and keep at it. At some point you should impress a head coach enough to get your first assistant's job.

Regardless of where you went to school. If you want it badly enough, that desire will serve you better in the long run than having an Indiana or North Carolina pedigree.

Monday, November 07, 2005

What To Do With a T.O. Jersey?

Last year in the midst of a snowstorm I bought my kids Eagles' jerseys. It was an easy decision, really. It was the day before the NFC championship game, and I figured that you don't get championship opportunities in the Philadelphia area that often. So, I took my five year-old son, braved slippery roads, and bought two jerseys.

He wanted a Donovan McNabb jersey, and there were plenty of those. My daughter, now eight, had voted for a Terrell Owens jersey. She liked his effort, and she liked his attitude, and, well, I wasn't the only one in the Philadelphia area purchasing his jersey. I would have preferred a Jevon Kearse or a Brian Westbrook, but, heck, I'm a dad, she's a kid, and what was the harm?

After all, T.O. was part of the "happy to be here" club last year, rescued from the depths of hell that the once-proud 49ers had fallen to. Giddy, he had to be, for he had left a basement dwellar and joined a team that was an elevator passkey away from access to the glamorous penthouse. He worked hard in the off-season, worked hard during the season and had a great year.

So great, in fact, that he made the Eagles' offense multi-dimensional. Donovan McNabb had his best year, as he finally had among his supporting cast one of the best players in the game at his position after having suffered with an average receiving corps at best. The Eagles' fans saw T.O. as the missing link to their first championship since Chuck Bednarik sat on the Packers' Jim Taylor in the waning seconds of the 1960 NFL Championship Game at Franklin Field in Philadelphia. There was plenty of happiness to go around.

Fast forward several months after the Super Bowl, and all heck broke lose (saying h-e double hockey sticks in the house is verboten). Owens acted badly, well, you know the entire story.

Today the Eagles announced they were parting company with him for good, and, of course, kids being kids, my daughter didn't hear the information during the day. She knew that T.O. was in trouble, but she didn't know how bad it was except that he had said bad things about a teammate and that wasn't good. When I got him, she was in her after-school garb, which included her T.O. jersey over a white t-shirt.

What do you tell a little kid? How do you tell a third-grader that she's wearing the jersey of a pariah, someone who has dishonored the local eleven's colors and is now Philadelphia's version of Harry Potter's Lord Valdemort. He who must not be named.

"That's some outfit," I said upon arriving home, watching my daughter hanging upside down from our oversized chair while watching a show on The Disney Channel. "Hear what happened today?"

She smiled. "Did the Eagles kick T.O. off the team today?" Amazing, these eight year-olds are, as they aren't glued to the Internet like older kids, at least not yet.

"Yes, they did."

"What does that mean, exactly? He won't be coming back, will he?" Kids know. They just do. As much as you try to soften the blows and deliver news of disharmony kindly, they can see right through it. She just knew this would happen.

"No, he won't."

"Is it because of what he said?"

"Yes," I said. And there was so much I wanted to say about being a teammate, being loyal, being supportive, knowing when to speak and when not to, but she's a kid, and how thick do you lay it on? "He just couldn't get along with his teammates. He had plenty of chances, but the team decided they'd be better off without him."

She nodded, and I could see that she was trying to synthesize the information. Finality is hard for adults, and it can be harder for little kids to understand. Kids fight, especially with siblings, and they can end up hugging half an hour later. Parents leave for work or business trips and come home. Teammates on tee ball or in youth soccer converse and run around, they don't trash talk or push each other around. Even at eight, it's not that easy to comprehend such a public argument.

And the Eagles hold a special place in the mindset of the average Philadelphia fan. They're the best run franchise locally, the team that has captured the imagination (and hearts) of the public. So to a degree it's unfathomable that someone might not want to play for them and that a player can publicly be mean to Donovan McNabb. It's hard for adults to figure that one out, so it's virtually impossible for kids.

"I guess I'll have to get you a new jersey," I told her. We agreed that it wouldn't be the best idea for any Eagles fan to be donning a T.O. jersey in the future.

"How about a Kearse or a Westbrook?" I offered. Dawkins and Trotter also would be nice, I figured.

"Can you get me an L.J. Smith?" she asked. She knows enough of the team to know about the talented third-year tight end from Rutgers?

Fair enough, I thought. He shows up, works hard, makes some great catches, drops some balls he should catch, but he's a team player. Not a bad choice -- if they sell his jerseys for little kids.

Adult fans will lament the fact that the L.J. Smiths, Reggie Browns and Greg Lewises won't make up for the absence of a T.O. And it's hard to dispute that. But the beautiful part about kids is that they can get over their disappointments quickly, and I for one know that when I get my daughter an L.J. Smith jersey her face will light up the same way it did the day I tossed her the T.O. jersey.

Because, in the end, what she is getting is a Philadelphia Eagles jersey. That's what matters to her, a nice green jersey that represents the home team very well.

It's great to have an appreciative child, great to have someone who's happy to have a home team to root for and a good jersey to wear.

What's sad is that Terrell Owens can't enjoy the privileges that his talents have provided him access to.

A nice green jersey in a football town, with good teammates all around him.

If only the life of a thirty-one year-old mega star could be that simple.

More Tidbits About Division I Head Hoops Coaches

The 327 DI coaches went to roughly 241 different colleges. The schools with the most alums as head coaches are among the hoops elite -- UConn, Carolina and Oklahoma State with five. Duke, a perennial heavyweight, has four alums who are DI head coaches, as do Butler (in hoops-rich Indiana) and Eastern Michigan. Thirteen schools have three alums who are head coaches, among them historical winners Boston College, Indiana, Kentucky, N.C. State, Princeton and Syracuse.

Among the names you wouldn't have predicted to spawn head coaches at the DI level are Arkansas A&M, Bethune-Cookman (Temple's John Chaney is an alum), Cal State-Northridge, Catholic, East Carolina, East Tennessee State, Eastern New Mexico, Keene St., Kings (Wisconsin's Bo Ryan), Merrimack (the brothers Herrion), Montana, Northern Iowa, Northern Michigan (Michigan State's Tom Izzo), Potsdam State, San Jose State, St. Lawrence (Iowa State's Wayne Morgan is an alum), Seattle Pacific and Wisconsin-Platteville, each of which has two alums who are Division I head coaches.

Of the DI head coaches, roughly 2/3 went to DI schools and 1/3 did not. 27 coaches went to the schools that represent the Top 15 "winningest" DI programs of all time -- Kentucky (3), North Carolina (5), Kansas (2), Duke (4), St. John's (0), Syracuse (3), Temple (0), Pennsylvania (0), Indiana (3), Notre Dame (1), Utah (0), UCLA (2), Oregon State (0), Princeton (3) and Illinois (1). If you read Blue Ribbon and other guides closely, you'll note that many of the coaches who went to name schools weren't necessarily "name" players. That shouldn't surprise most people, but it is interesting to see which schools have "spawned", as it were, the most head coaches. I haven't gone so far as to breakdown how many coaches are coaching at their alma maters, but I recall that it's probably in the dozens. If that's the case, then you can realize how hard it is to get a DI head coaching job.

Okay, here goes, the alma maters of all 327 Division I college hoops coaches:

Connecticut (5)
North Carolina (5)
Oklahoma State (5)

Butler (4)
Duke (4)
Eastern Michigan (4)

Alabama-Birmingham (3)
Boston College (3)
Bucknell (3)
Indiana (3)
Kentucky (3)
LaSalle (3)
Louisiana Tech (3)
N.C. State (3)
Oregon (3)
Pacific (3)
Princeton (3)
Syracuse (3)
Virginia (3)

Alabama (2)
Arkansas (2)
Arkansas A&M (2)
Bethune-Cookman (2)
Cal State Northridge (2)
Catholic (2)
Charlotte (2)
Cincinnati (2)
East Carolina (2)
East Tennessee St. (2)
Eastern New Mexico (2)
Fairfield (2)
Georgia (2)
Howard (2)
Idaho (2)
Kansas (2)
Keene St. (2)
Kings (2)
Louisville (2)
Maryland (2)
Massachusetts (2)
Merrimack (2)
Mississippi (2)
Mississippi State (2)
Montana (2)
New Mexico St. (2)
Northern Iowa (2)
Northern Michigan (2)
Pittsburgh (2)
Potsdam State (2)
Providence (2)
Purdue (2)
San Jose St. (2)
St. Bonaventure (2)
St. Lawrence (2)
Seattle Pacific (2)
TCU (2)
UCLA (2)
Virginia Tech (2)
Western Kentucky (2)
Wisconsin-Platteville (2)

One apiece:
Adelphi
Akron
Alabama A&M
Alabama State
Albany
Alderson-Broaddus
American International
Arizona
Asbury
Ashland
Army
Augsburg
Baptist Bible
Baylor
Belhaven
Belmont
Bemijdi State
Birmingham Southern
Bishop
Boise State
Bowling Green
Bradley
Brockport State
Buffalo State
California
Cameron
Campbellsville
Carnegie Mellon
Catawba
Centenary
Central Connecticut State
Central Michigan
Central Washington
Chadron State
Cheyney State
Clarion State
Colorado College
Colorado State
Creighton
Davidson
Defiance
Delaware
DePaul
DePauw
Dowling
Eastern Illinois
Eastern Kentucky
East Texas State
Eckerd
Edison State
Elizabethtown
Elon
Emory & Henry
Empire St.
Fairleigh Dickinson
Ferris State
Florida State
Fresno State
Furman
Gardner-Webb
Georgetown
George Washington
Gettysburg
Gonzaga
Grambling
Guilford
High Point
Hofstra
Holy Cross
Houston
Illinois
Illinois-Chicago
Illinois St.
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas State
Lamar
Lenoir Rhyne
Long Beach State
Louisiana Monroe
LSU
Luther
Maine
McMurry
Memphis
Merchant Marine
Miami (FL)
Miami (Ohio)
Michigan Tech
Middle Tennessee State
Minnesota-Duluth
Minot St.
Missouri
Missouri-St. Louis
Monmouth
Montana State
Mount St. Mary's
Navy
New Orleans
Nicholls State
North Central College
Northeastern
Northern Colorado
North Texas
Notre Dame
Nova Southeastern
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma Baptist
Old Dominion
Oswego
Our Lady of Holy Cross
Pembroke State
Penn State
Pikeville
Queens
Randolph-Macon
Regis
Rhode Island
Rice
Richmond
Ripon
Roanoke
Rowan
Sacred Heart
Saginaw Valley State
Salem State
St. Joseph's
St. John Fisher
St. Mary of the Plains
St. Paul's
St. Peter's
San Francisco
Siena
Slippery Rock
South Alabama
South Carolina
Southeast Louisiana
Southern California
Southern Illinois
Southern Mississippi
Southern Utah
Southwest Texas State
Susquehanna
Tennessee
Tennessee-Martin
Texas-Arlington
Texas Southern
Texas St.
Toledo
Troy State
Tulsa
Union
UC-San Diego
UC-Santa Barbara
UC-Irvine
UC-Riverside
UNLV
UNC-Asheville
Ursinus
Valdosta State
Villanova
Washington & Lee
Weber State
Western State
Westfield State
Wheeling Jesuit
Widener
Wilkes
William Jewell
Winthrop
Wisconsin
Wisconsin-LaCrosse
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Wisconsin-Stevens Point.

Okay, if you're a savant and do the math, I might have missed a school or two, but I think that the count and the breakdowns are 98%+ accurate. I've also done some tabulating regarding DI assistants, in terms of their year of graduation and where they went to school. As a preview, suffice it to say that there isn't a single assistant coach in the college ranks who graduated before 1960, while there are at least 5 DI assistants who graduated in 2005.

Coaching is a young man's game, except, as I pointed out in my previous post, when it comes to the Top 25. In that group, the coaches are significantly older, as it were, than the entire body of DI coaches. I'm sure if you were to break down that demographic further, you could also discern how much money DI schools are willing to spend on the best coaches and programs, and, in turn, which DI programs really have a chance to win a national title. While schools get a lot of juice regarding a DI hoops program and where a trip to the NCAA Tournament would appear to be the ultimate narcotic for an athletic department, I would surmise that if you accept the premise that older/more experienced coaches cost more, that perhaps only 20% of the DI programs have a legitimate shot to make it to a Final Four. That's just a guess, but it's worth exploring in future posts.

Sunday, November 06, 2005

Once Burned, Twice Shy, Then What?

T.O. is in timeout, perhaps for the rest of the season. And, now that he's in his early 30's, he really has to wonder where his career is headed.

He couldn't get along with Steve Mariucci and Jeff Garcia in San Francisco. He once got suspended there. A star player burned his NFL team. Then he got traded.

A team very hungry for a Super Bowl championship and on the cusp of one got into the act. Its star QB lobbied his management to trade for this guy. So they did. After playing well his first year, he acted up in the off-season. He made a ton of noise in the off-season about dissatisfaction with his contract, got asked to leave training camp, refused to deal with local media, apparently got into a fistight with a former Eagles' player, said some things that he probably shouldn't have said and got suspended. The same star player burned his NFL team.

So what happends next to Terrell Owens? You may recall the plight of Jeff George, the all-world talent who played at two colleges and then never seemed to find a home with an NFL team. He washed out earlier than he otherwise would have because the tag "uncoachable" seems to be stuck to him the way one-time Raiders' CB Lester Hayes stuck to receivers in his day (literally and figuratively). George could have helped some QB-desperate teams over the past five years, but NFL personnel people passed, presumably because of the potential disharmony that George could have engendered in the locker room.

Now, T.O. has produced more on the gridiron than Jeff George, but he's also been as disruptive if not more disruptive. If you're a head coach who insists upon harmony and loyalty and selflessness, the odds are that you won't put up with T.O.'s act and the potential it has to torpedo your team. After all, if you ink T.O. to a deal you are teeing him up as your #1 or #2 receiver (in the latter case, only if your #1 is Marvin Harrison or Torry Holt). So, if he pulls his act on you and you have to kick him off the team, you'll have a whole at an important position. Given T.O.'s history of acting out, why would you want to take that risk?

Let's look at some of the coaches who have teams that could go from good to great in a hurry after this season. Joe Gibbs has won three Super Bowls, and Bill Parcells has won two. I don't see either of them gambling on T.O. I also doubt that Jon Gruden (whose dust-up with Keyshawn Johnson was enough for one coaching career), Jim Mora, Jr. or John Fox would take a chance either. Tom Coughlin in NY? While it would be tempting for the Giants to tweak the Eagles on the personnel front, I just don't see it happening. All of those teams have some good momentum going, and they wouldn't want to risk it with Owens.

Sorry, T.O., but your latest actions demonstrate that you don't have much understanding about the team concept. Work at a company with a backbone, and your boss would take you into the H.R. Department and write you up after your first episode. After your second one, especially with what's been reported on ESPN.com, you'd get walked out the door. Without severance.

The Eagles gambled two years ago when they traded for T.O. to give themselves some better threats on offense. The gamble paid off last season, when T.O. had a great year and then performed heroically in the Super Bowl. The team upgraded itself, and Owens did a great job.

The problem was, he couldn't sustain it. The explosiveness he showed on the field transformed itself to combustability off it. That was the risk -- and it manifested itself for all to see.

It seems like the T.O.-Eagles rift is irreparable and not one that former peacemakers Jeremiah Trotter and Brian Dawkins can solve. They were having trouble winning with T.O., and now they'll have great difficulty winning without him.

But sometimes character has to take over, and sometimes your organization has to suffer setbacks in order to advance. By jettisoning T.O., the Eagles will suffer in the short term, but in the long term they'll have a better chance of honoring their principles and achieving the goal of a championship. For, despite his talent, T.O. doesn't the leadership skills or the ability to follow sound leaders to help his team get there.

T.O.'s career is far from over. But it may be the day that front-office personnel decide than instead of T.O.'s being the missing piece for their championship, T.O. is missing enough of a piece to help take their teams to the top of the game. Instead of playing in playoff games, look for T.O. to help desperate also rans in places like Houston, Minnesota and New Orleans give their fans something to cheer for.

Assuming, of course, that he'll be happy in those football deserts.

Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah!

Thank you for indulging me. I've waited almost ten years for this.

Now, most of you don't read this blog for any mention at all of the Ivy League, but this game bears special mention for several reasons (for those of you not clicking on the link, Princeton beat Penn in football -- at Penn -- 30-13 yesterday).

1. As a Princeton alum who lives in the Greater Philadelphia area, I've had to put up with all kinds of grief during my adult lifetime, from "How could you not have gone to Penn?" to various comments about how snooty and mean Princeton people can be (of course, I was always excepted from that sweeping statement, sometimes with the comment that "You're on only person I know who went to Princeton whom I like", and, depending on the speaker, I might have begun to wonder what was wrong with me). I've learned throughout life's journey that humble people can come from Princeton and arrogant ones from schools that admit you if you're a high-school graduate, so I never put much stock in those statements. However, having had to listen to a chorus, if not cacophony, of comments like that over the years, the win is extra sweet. Any win over Penn is extra sweet for Princeton alums living in the Philadelphia area. The Tigers' football team could go 1-9 every year, but if that win were over Penn, certain Philadelphia-area Princeton alums would be content. For what it's worth, I have great respect for, and to a degree like, various aspects of the University of Pennsylvania, from programs, to faculty to alumni to buildings to color schemes and don't have any axes to grind or sore spots regarding Penn (other than, perhaps, having to hear occasional silly comments from zealous Penn alums). That said, it's a nice win to savor, as it shuts the obnoxious among the Penn alumni body up for at least a short while.

2. Contrary to what gets written in the Philadelphia papers, Penn is not Princeton's greatest Ivy rival. Yes, the Penn people might think that, and they do relish beating Princeton in an extra special way. That said, Princeton people do not think that. For example, ask the average Princeton alum (okay, so most won't say they're average at anything) about who the Tigers' greatest rival is in football, and they'll say Yale. Why? Because going back to almost the time football was invented, the Princeton-Yale game was a blood feud. Today, of course, Harvard-Yale is "The Game", but it wasn't always that way. (In a sense, Princeton fans are outsiders on the Harvard-Yale thing the way Penn alums are outsiders on the Harvard-Yale-Princeton thing). For many Princeton alums, beating Yale in football is the ultimate accomplishment in any given year. And, bonfires don't get lit on the Princeton campus after gridiron victories over Penn. They do get lit, though, if the Tigers win the Big Three, and the bonfires are something to see. If the Tigers beat Yale this weekend, there will be a bonfire this fall on Cannon Green right behind Nassau Hall. Penn clearly is Princeton's biggest rival in basketball; no one will dispute that. But on the gridiron, it's a different story, at least for Princetonians.

3. Penn football has been a juggernaut for the past 20 years. Head coaches Jerry Berndt, Ed Zubrow and Al Bagnoli have brought Penn football to a very high Division 1-AA level (Gary Steele was less successful), and Penn should be commended for this accomplishment. Princeton's victory at Franklin Field is very special because of the type of program they defeated yesterday. Forget about Ivy rivalries, silly comments, chips on shoulders and all the rest. You beat the perennial power in your league in their building, that's quite an accomplishment.

4. The Tigers are now in the hunt to win the Ivies (or share in a title) for the first time since 1995. They have two games remaining, this weekend against Yale, which lost to Brown yesterday and dropped in second place, and then a week later against Dartmouth, which, whatever its record, always seems to give Princeton fits. Football championships don't happen that frequently in Tigertown, and my guess is that Princeton Stadium, with a capacity of about 25,000, will be near capacity this Saturday when they host the Elis. The team, which was picked for sixth in pre-season polling, is primed to win a title.

Okay, so the Tigers aren't a football dynasty the way Penn is. And, yes, they don't have the very rich football history that Yale does. But right now, in the present, either of those schools would love to be where Princeton is today.

Hunting for a title.

Friday, November 04, 2005

Temple University's Search For A Football Coach

Temple hasn't had a successful head football coach since Wayne Hardin left Broad and Columbia in the early 1980's. Hardin coached Heisman winners Roger Staubach and Joe Bellino at Navy, then had a hitch at Pacific (hard to figure out how he landed there) and then ended up at Temple. In the process, he put Temple on the national map (they were a reasonably formidable team), coached some excellent teams in the 1970's that did the equivalent of tugging on Superman's cape by taking good Penn State teams down to the wire two years running (one was a 26-25 loss at Penn's Franklin Field, the other a 10-7 loss at Veterans Stadium that had the Owls driving for a winning score with the game tied at seven in the final three minutes, only to have star RB Anthony Anderson fumble, Penn State gain possession, and have Matt Bahr kick a game-winning FG in the final minute). There was excitement with those Owls then. Joe Klecko played for Wayne Hardin. So did Cowboys G Jim Cooper, Falcons K Nick Mike-Mayer, Steelers TE Randy Grossman and many others.

Since then, though, there has been a serious drought. To replace Hardin, the Owls opted for an up-and-coming Alabama assistant, the Tide's then RBs coach, Bruce Arians. Heralded as a wunderkind, Arians wasn't the next Hardin, let alone the next Bryant. Hardin was as crafty a game coach as there was, and Arians just couldn't bring his superpower methods to bear at Temple. After several years, he was gone -- with a losing record. Enter Jerry Berndt.

Berndt started his head coaching career at DIII DePauw, subsequently to become nationally known for being the alma mater of one-time VP, Dan Quayle (who no one ever accused of having gone to class much). Berndt then surfaced at Pennsylvania in the early 80's. Penn, a glamorous national program in the 40's and 50's, had sunk to new lows in the late 70's under Harry Gamble. Brought in to revive the Quakers, Berndt did just that. Rice, thinking that hiring a successful coach from a "smart" school like it would help revive its program, lured Berndt away. Berndt couldn't replicate his success at Penn in Houston, and the Rice Owls let him go.

A favorite in Philadelphia, Temple hired him to be head coach. Unfortunately, Berndt couldn't rekindle the magic that people thought he had left behind at Penn (which, to this day, is on a 20-year streak of excellent teams that Berndt's turnaround inspired). So, Berndt was given the gate -- with a losing record, replaced by one-time Penn State assistant Ron Dickerson.

Figuring that Penn State magic might rub off on North Broad Street, Owls' backers were optimistic. Wrongly, as it turned out, as Dickerson wasn't as successful as Berndt, who wasn't as successful as Arians, who wasn't nearly as successful as Hardin. Dickerson was something like 6-41 in four seasons. The Owls were near the bottome of the 117 or so DIA football programs. Finally figuring out that they should opt for a different route than former DI head or assistant coaches, the Owls went the DII route.

They brought in Bobby Wallace, who had coached teams to relative national prominence at at North Alabama, which became a DII power when he was there. Figuring that winning begets winning, they thought that Wallace could inspire a group of DI wannabes who, pretty much, no other DI school wanted, into a winner. Wallace's teams had their moments, including a memorable upset of Va Tech several years back in Blacksburg, but this year particularly they've been cannon fodder for all sorts of DI programs. So bad has it gotten on North Broad that Wallace resigned earlier in the season -- effective at year's end. Another losing record, and this season has been particularly awful.

It used to be that the Owls were able to draw stellar players from the Philadelphia Public and Catholic leagues, as well as from up-state Pennsylvania, particularly former coal country. It also used to be that they were recruiting against both Penn State and Pitt alone, both of which, at least in the 70's, were national powers. Meanwhile, many other DI schools left these parts alone, so Temple could recruit good kids from the city and the suburbs.

Unfortunately, a few phenomena unfolded. First, Philadelphia, which has a 2.1 million population in 1950, only has a 1.4 million population today, and 1/3 of those people live at or below the povery line. Socieconomic problems bring more educational challenges, which, translated means that the kids who are in the public schools have more difficulty qualifying for college scholarships than they might have twenty, twenty-five years ago. So, part of the base from which Temple used to draw well has gone somewhat dry. Meanwhile, the kids from the Catholic, Inter-Ac (i.e, elite private school) and suburban leagues are being recruited elswhere, to Virginia (RB Wali Lundy is from South Jersey), Maryland (QB Sam Hollenbach is from Bucks County, Pa HS Pennridge), Michigan, Wisconsin, Notre Dame (WR Maurice Stovall is from suburban HS Archbishop Carroll, while frosh LB Steve Quinn is from St. Joseph's Prep) and on and on. Now, some of these kids are high DI kids, but there are those who might go elsewhere -- even IAA, because Temple has an urban setting that doesn't afford the campus life that I-AA neighbor Villanova does, for example. Put another way, there is no real well from which Temple can easily draw, and given the campus's limitations, it's hard for them to draw from a national pool.

(I confess that I have written much of the above from memory, because, as I have lamented before, it's hard to find historical information on many schools athletic websites. The reasons, I think are several -- 1) schools want to focus, pretty much, on the present and 2) if your history is bad and you don't have a tradition, why advertise it?)

Based on all of that, the Owls are looking for a new head coach, and many names have been rumored to be part of the hunt. The Temple A.D. had said that he can't mention any names, because some of the candidates have jobs now, and it wouldn't be fair to surface their names. That's certainly fair enough, and I'll reiterate from memory what I read in the Philadelphia papers about the candidates.

1. Former Navy and UVA head coach George Welsh. Clearly a successful former coach, Welsh is ruminating whether to return to coaching. He is 72.

2. Baltimore Ravens QB coach Rick Neuheisel. Neuheisel played an expensive NCAA tourney hoops pool while head coach at Washington and lost his job. He surfaced on Brian Billick's staff in Baltimore, and would be an intriguing choice. There's one catch -- it doesn't appear that he's interested.

3. Bruce Arians, who, after Temple, became a career NFL offensive assistant. I don't know where he is today, but there are those Temple faithful who remember Arians fondly. What his recruiting base would be -- or his appeal -- is lost on me at the moment.

4. Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Bradley. Rumored as a possible successor to Joe Paterno in a few years, Bradley wouldn't appear likely to trade Happy Valley for Sad City, at least any time soon.

There were other names, all less memorable, and I don't think those four contain a likely successor to Bobby Wallace. As a result, here are a few that I would suggest:

1. Baltimore Ravens Outside Linebackers Coach Mike Pettine, Jr. The name Pettine is gold in Southeastern Pennsylvania. His dad, Mike Sr., for whom he played, was perhaps the best coach in PA HS history, winning over 300 games in a thirty-plus year career while losing about 32 in the same span. Pettine Sr. coached Central Bucks West, which was a dynasty in Pennsylvania until his retirement. Pettine Jr. went to UVA and has a degree in economics, which should impress the parents of some recruits. He was a head coach at North Penn, where he turned around a fast-growing and once sleepy former farming community HS into a powerhouse that remains today (his former top assistant, Dick Beck, played for his dad at CB West and started for 4 years as an offensive lineman at Temple; Beck is head coach of North Penn today). Pettine is a fiery guy and a builder, and he has great roots in the area plus the street cred of having coached in the pros. I'd put him atop my list fast.

2. St. Joseph's Prep HS coach Gil Brooks. Brooks, a Swarthmore grad and partner in a Phila law firm, turned around a once-proud but middling program and made it a national power, as the Prep is in the USA Today national rankings conversation every year. He's a tough, focused coach who seems to blend some outstanding recruits with some hardworking kids who turn out winners. I watched a game featuring the Prep against rival Roman Catholic on TV about a month ago, and it seemed that Roman had 5 athletes on the field who were better than the Prep's best one. Final score was something like 41-0, the Prep. Brooks also would seem to be able to build a network of recruiting within Pennsylvania that could draw some good kids.

Unless you can draw a Neuheisel or a big name with enough stature to build an oasis in the football desert that otherwise is the northeast corridor of the United States, the Owls would be wise to focus on Pettine and Brooks. Instead of "having to have" someone with a link to a Penn State or a Top 10 power, look for the guy who can make the most of what there is in your own back yard.

And, I would submit, they wouldn't have to look very far.

Wednesday, November 02, 2005

Factoids About Division I College Hoops Coaching

There are 327 Division 1 college hoops teams (this according to Blue Ribbon, which is my source for this post).

Please look at the following list of colleges:

Alabama
American International
Army
Augsburg
Boise State
Bucknell
Carnegie Mellon
Cincinnati
Clarion State
Connecticut
High Point
Indiana
Lenoir Rhyne
Maryland
Massachusetts
Merchant Marine Academy
Northern Michigan
Oregon
Pembroke State
St. Lawrence
Syracuse
Weber State
Wilkes
Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

24 schools. What do they represent?

Some wag, unmindful of conference scheduling requirements, might offer that this list represents a typical Georgetown schedule during the John Thompson, Jr. coaching era. Augsburg, Lenoir Rhyne, Pembroke state, St. Lawrence, Wilkes.

But that would be wrong.

These schools are the alma maters of the coaches of the teams ranked in Blue Ribbon's pre-season Top 25. (The reason that there are only 24 schools listed is that both Louisville and Boston College have UMass alums as coaches -- Rick Pitino and Al Skinner respectively, both of whom incidentally, were Class of '74). Which means, of course, that you aren't required to have gone to a legendary hoops school to get an elite coaching perch.

Wayne Morgan of Iowa State went to St. Lawrence, a New England liberal arts college. John Calipari of Memphis went to Clarion State in Pennsylvania, a school that used to be in the country's top 25 -- in wrestling. Lute Olson of Arizona went to Augsburg, Jay Wright of Villanova went to Bucknell, and Skip Prosser of Wake Forest went to Merchant Marine Academy. Jim Calhoun of UConn went to American International, Rick Barnes of Texas to Lenoir Rhyne, Coach K to Army, and Tom Izzo to Northern Michigan. Bo Ryan of Wisconsin went to Wilkes College in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania.

Not a DI hoops dynasty among that particular group. (Yes, Gary Williams of Maryland went to Maryland, Steve Alford of Iowa went to Indiana and Jim Boeheim of Syracuse went to Syracuse, but they are in the minority here). I will post later a list of (i) the schools that have the most current DI head coaches and (ii) all of the alma maters of current DI head coaches, as well as a breakdown of the graduation years of those head coaches. It's all interesting stuff.

The oldest head coach is John Chaney of Temple, Bethune-Cookman '55. The youngest is Dane Fife, Indiana '02, who is the head coach of Indiana Purdue at Fort Wayne.

The one interesting demographic that sticks out is the age breakdown of the coaches of the Top 25 schools. One is Class of '56 (Olson), five graduated in the 60's, 10 in the 70's, 8 in the 80's and one in the 90's. That sampling is significantly older than the overall breakdown of DI head coaches, as follows:

1950's -- 4
1960's -- 30
1970's -- 95
1980's -- 148
1990's -- 49
2000's -- 1.

In short, comparatively speaking, 64% of the coaches of teams ranked in the pre-season Top 25 graduated in 1979 or earlier. In contrast, 57.5% of all DI coaches graduated in 1980 or later. I haven't yet distinguished among high-major, mid-major and low-major schools, but I would suffice it to say that the coaches at the perennial contenders are perhaps a bit older than the younger coaches, who might be at their first DI head coaching job at a lower major where they're trying to build their records to get a chance at a bigger-time school. Put another way, the numbers tell us that 11.8% of the coaches who graduated in the 1970's have teams in the pre-season Top 25, while only 5.7% of the coaches who graduated in the 1980's have teams in the pre-season Top 25.

Experience seems more of a determining factor as to Top 25 rankings, at least in this sampling, than where a coach went to school. When I publish the list of where all DI coaches went to school, you'll see names that are about as well known as Augsburg, Pembroke State and Lenoir Rhyne. Which means, then, that becoming a head coach, like becoming a success in other endeavors, requires both innate talent and a will to work to fulfill that talent, even if doors don't automatically open for you. That said, when you see the overall numbers, playing for Duke and assisting your former coach gives you a leg up on kids who went to Ferris State, Baptist Bible and Regis.

Let's let the fun begin.

Tuesday, November 01, 2005

You Decide Whether

Stephon Marbury is a potential champion or a career "good" player on underperforming teams.

Here is his curriculum vitae.

According to Tim Legler, Marbury has played for 10 coaches in his career, having played on four teams, and in a league where the average coach's tenure is shorter than Bobby Knight's fuse. Legler, on ESPN Radio this morning, opined that Marbury's career has suffered because he hasn't had enough time with one coach to play within a system, reach greater heights, etc. He observed that with Larry Brown coaching the Knicks, Marbury has the opportunity to play for a coach who has a championship ring and who could help get him one.

Fair enough. I don't think that Legler meant to imply that Marbury's failure to play on winning teams has been everyone's fault but Marbury's. In criticism of Marbury, he has appeared to be a shoot-first point guard who hasn't made his career's mission the improvement of his teammates and his team. That Marbury has been traded as often as he has, for a player of his ability, speaks volumes as to the type of player decisionmakers in the NBA believe Marbury to be. That Marbury has played for so many coaches, to a certain degree, is Marbury's doing too. As one of the most talented players on any team for which he has played, he, to a greater degree than the average player, has more of an impact on his team and, correspondingly, his coach's success (or lack thereof). Ergo, if Marbury doesn't listen to his coach or act as a leader, his team will not fare that well.

And the coach gets fired.

Legler made a great point this morning, which is that the head coach's relationship with his stars has more of an impact in the NBA than in any other sport. This explains why the tenure of the average coach is rather short. The players, with their long-term contracts, have the leverage here. They can make or break their coaches, and if they're not as focused on winning championships as others, they'll get their points, win their share of games, and end up having participated in more of an entertainment business than in a competitive sport. Their legacy will be one of someone who was a talented player who got his points, but who otherwise wasn't a winner. He'll get more acclaim than an "innings eater" for a Major League Baseball team, the fourth starter who you need to give you 200 innnings and hopefully can win about half his games. But, truth be told, the innings eater knows his role and perhaps cannot do more, while the talented potential star doesn't understand his role and could do more. Yet, because the talent is there, unless you're a J.J. Daigneault in hockey, a Ryan Leaf in football, a Travis Lee in baseball or a Shawn Bradley in hoops, where you'll be remember as a guy who was drafted early, got a big contract, or both, and who accomplished very little, you'll still have a legacy as a "good" player.

Even if, to a degree, all you did was take up space and help keep your team respectable.

I definitely think that Marbury has one of his last shots to determine his legacy when playing under Larry Brown. It would be a great story if he were to trust in Brown, shoot a little less, work harder to find the open teammate and work harder on defense and lead by example. If he does that, and if the Knicks buy into Brown's teaching, they'll have a chance this year to be a #5 or #6 seed in the East. But if Marbury worries more about his numbers, he and Brown will end up at odds, the Knicks might win half their games, and Marbury will continue to merit a legacy of a talented player who was unable to embrace the team concept.

Larry Brown is a great coach. He is not a magician. He did a great job in 2001 with the 76ers in getting them to the NBA finals, getting 1 up on L.A. in those finals and almost 2 up (the 76ers had the lead and had fouled out Shaq in the last several minutes, only to lose). That team featured a unique player in Allen Iverson, whom the Sixers selected over Marbury and Ray Allen in the draft about 8 years ago. Iverson, in is own way, listened enough to Brown to help his team win (he was MVP that season). Marbury would do well to follow Iverson's example and work with Brown to forge a winner.

But make no mistake about it. Part of whether Marbury plays for a champion is up to Marbury. Sure, there are factors beyond his control, such as his supporting cast. But he can make a big difference if he chooses.

If he does, he'll help begin to change his legacy.

If he does not, he'll be part of a long line of NBA players who scored a bunch of points but whose teams never got close to a championship.

He has a golden opportunity now; the choice is his.